Newsclips
What We’re Reading
July 11, 2018
Today's topics include the trade war, junk bonds, raising rates, share buybacks, rising gas prices, the labor market in Britain and visualizing the worlds largest tech companies.
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July 11, 2018
Newsclips
Capex at Risk of Slowing Across the Globe
July 10, 2018
Better than 90% of developed economies have increased fixed capital formation, which has a habit of marking cycle peaks. Search trends for an array of capital expenditures are beginning to slow, suggesting euphoric surveys are over their skis.
Newsclips
Markets Losing Confidence in OPEC
July 10, 2018
Oil markets are expecting higher prices for longer.
Newsclips
What We’re Reading
July 10, 2018
Today's topics include hedge funds' struggles, measuring the economy, tariff concerns, volatility, crude oil supply, problems in Turkey, automated commodity trading, FANGS and trouble in the UK.
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Cartoons
July 10, 2018
Newsclips
Markets Under-pricing a Summer 2019 ECB Hike
July 9, 2018
We see potential for ECB rate hike timing to become pulled into the spring/summer of 2019. The longer-end of the U.S. yield curve is showing heightened sensitivity to ECB rate hike timing, meaning higher nominal yields would ensue. On the flip side, real yields in the U.S. will likely remain trapped in their trading range until wage growth finally shows up.
Newsclips
Falling Industrial Metals Aren’t Enough to Dent Global Growth
July 9, 2018
For now, falling prices for industrial metals and agricultural commodities have not put much of a dent in our global growth estimate. This is consistent with our belief that the trade wars are the side-show to slowing economic growth in key regions like Europe and Southeast Asia.
Newsclips
Jim’s View: Where Are The Tariff Effects?
July 9, 2018
The markets are treating Trump's tariffs as a means to an end in ultimately eliminating trade barriers.
Newsclips
Capex Expectations Too High
July 9, 2018
High expectations for capital expenditures are expected to temper given set-backs across soft economic data and emerging markets. Retailing, healthcare services, energy, technology, and software industries are at greatest risk.
Newsclips
Q2 2018 Earnings Season Preview
July 9, 2018
Q2 1018 earnings season gets underway this week. Earnings growth expectations are above 20% for the second time since 2010, while revenue expectations are their highest since 2011. Guidance is its most positive in about 20 years. With expectations so high, merely good results could be seen as a disappointment.
Newsclips
What We’re Reading
July 9, 2018
Today's topics include the yield curve, emerging markets defending their currencies, central banks extending further out the risk curve, older workers, bank stocks, buybacks, more on the payroll report, European politics, robots taking jobs, carnage in Chinese markets, and corporate bonds.