Newsclips
What We’re Reading
July 12, 2018
Today's topics include the trade war, searching for signs of recession, junk bonds, crude oil supply and demand, ignoring the Fed and the deterioration of corporate bonds.
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July 12, 2018
Conference Calls
Conference Call Replay – The State of the Markets at Mid-Year
July 11, 2018
The handout, audio replay and webinar replay of our July 12, 2018 conference call titled The State of the Markets at Mid-Year can be found below. The handout can be found here (starts with the second post). The audio replay can be heard below: The webinar replay is below: Summary U.S. yield curve: · … Continue reading Conference Call Replay – The State of the Markets at Mid-Year
Conference Calls
Yield Curve
July 11, 2018
Conference Calls
Slowing Growth
July 11, 2018
The chart below shows the percentage of economies producing economic surprises (orange) and above-average data changes (green). We use Citigroup economic surprise and data change indices for 35 economies in total. Data change indices provide a very useful measure of incoming releases relative to one-year averages. We have frequently discussed the end to global synchronized growth… Continue reading Slowing Growth
Conference Calls
Bond Investors Have Fallen Asleep at the Wheel
July 11, 2018
U.S. 5 and 10-year TIPS breakevens have produced their tightest 20-trading day range in history at a measly 3.1 bps. Remember inflation expectations have been steering Fed policy since the middle of 2017. The scatterplot below shows the relationship between three-month changes in U.S. 10-year breakevens (x-axis) and rate hikes expected by the… Continue reading Bond Investors Have Fallen Asleep at the Wheel
Conference Calls
Q2 2018 Earnings Season Preview
July 11, 2018
Q2 1018 earnings season gets underway this week. Earnings growth expectations are above 20% for the second time since 2010, while revenue expectations are their highest since 2011. Guidance is its most positive in about 20 years. With expectations so high, merely good results could be seen as a disappointment.
Conference Calls
Slowing Growth, Not Trade Policy, Hurting EM
July 11, 2018
The chart below shows rolling three-month flows for ETFs focused on emerging markets. China and Brazil have seen buying interest fade after heavy inflows to start 2018. India has been the most fled emerging market heading into the summer months. Economic data changes suggest investors should not be so quick to shed exposure to still… Continue reading Slowing Growth, Not Trade Policy, Hurting EM
Conference Calls
Where Are The Tariff Effects?
July 11, 2018
The markets are treating Trump's tariffs as a means to an end in ultimately eliminating trade barriers.
Newsclips
A Look At Financial Market Volume
July 11, 2018
Technical analysts believe volume is a measure of conviction. Following this idea, one would expect to see higher volume (more conviction) with higher prices. Of the eight broad measures of dollar volume we examine, only investment grade corporate bond volume is in a clear uptrend.
Newsclips
Investors Fearing Recession, but Oddly See Little Risk of Volatility
July 11, 2018
Economic growth has slowed into the summer of 2018, but investors continue to believe low volatility conditions will persist. We are very closely watching the decline in the percentage of economies producing above-average data changes. Continued deterioration would be a surprise to investors as conditions would be most ripe for drawdowns and higher volatility.
Newsclips
Underweight Tech Likely to Backfire
July 11, 2018
ETF flows over the past month show the largest rotation into non cyclical sectors since September 2016. Technology has tended to outperform utilities over the month following similar rotations.