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Tax Cuts Help Produce a Short-lived Bump in Growth
July 30, 2018
Slowing search trends for consumer items and services suggest personal spending will struggle to rebound into year-end. Economists have again become more certain in a moderate pace of growth, helping keep U.S. Treasury term premium and real yields from pressing higher.
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Digging into Expectations for Falling Default Rates
July 30, 2018
Corporate default rates are low and expected to fall further. But debt to pretax profit ratios remain elevated, especially in energy, manufacturing, and utilities. Income growth will be critical for high yield performance.
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Earnings Update: A Record Beat Rate And A Look At Tariff’s Effects
July 30, 2018
The halfway point of Q2 2018 earnings season just passed and a record 85% of companies beat earnings expectations so far. Factset's review of the 159 earnings conference call transcripts through July 25 points to low levels of concern over tariffs. Only 19 (12%) saw "at least" a modest impact from tariffs and 17 worried about the future impact of tariffs. Roughly 83% of earnings conference calls either saw no reason to mention tariffs or mentioned them and concluded they are having no effect on earnings.
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What We’re Reading
July 30, 2018
Today's topics include the yield curve, Fed independence, Chinese shadow banking, using debt to predict recessions, crude oil supply/demand, the BOJ intervenes again, ranking robo advisors and a look at Ant Financial.
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Cartoons
July 30, 2018
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Equity and UST Volatility Re-align, Causing Headaches for Asset Allocators
July 27, 2018
Risks behind equities and sovereigns have reconnected, making the lives of asset allocators that much more difficult. Unexpected events have potential to damage nearly all asset classes in a similar fashion. Our belief is investors are aligning nearly all volatility expectations with the markets refusal to price in long-lasting inflation.
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Australia Swimming Against Regional Growth and Inflation Tide
July 27, 2018
The regional growth and inflation outlook is weakening for Australia.
Market Cap to GDP Statistics
Market Capitalization As A Percentage Of GDP
July 27, 2018
Comparing the size of U.S. GDP to various markets
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U.S. High Yield Drawdown Risk on the Rise
July 27, 2018
U.S. high yield's (OAS) trading range in 2018 from 311 to 372 bps has increased potential to see an upside breakout. Key influences indicate widening of ~65 bps into year-end.
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What We’re Reading
July 27, 2018
Today's topics include the yield curve, tariffs and inflation, machine learning, bubbles, interval funds, State Street's ETF business, EM debt, rising homeownership, currency manipulation, corporate earnings and the bubble in private equity.