Newsclips
What We’re Reading
August 1, 2018
Today's topics include the FOMC decision, stock buybacks, bearish talk, the bond market, munis, JGBs, global home sales, Einhorn's bad quarter and tech companies.
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Cartoons
August 1, 2018
Conference Calls
Conference Call Replay – What to Do In A Boring Market
July 31, 2018
A replay of today's conference call.
Conference Calls
Where Is The Volatility?
July 31, 2018
Conference Calls
The Yield Curve
July 31, 2018
Conference Calls
What Does Matter
July 31, 2018
Potential for Slowing Capex We prefer to watch Google search trends from across the globe for major capital expenditures instead of lagging and intermittent surveys. The chart below shows six-month changes in these searches slowing into the summer of 2018. The recent downturn in capex searches is the worst since late 2012. We have… Continue reading What Does Matter
Conference Calls
The $1 Trillion Market Cap Race Is a Zero Sum Game
July 31, 2018
Bloomberg.com – Jim Bianco: The $1 Trillion Market Cap Race Is a Zero Sum Game The stock market values of a few technology companies are increasing at the expense of legacy businesses. Many on Wall Street joke that if Amazon sets its sights on your industry, get out while you can. And if Amazon is not involved in your… Continue reading The $1 Trillion Market Cap Race Is a Zero Sum Game
Conference Calls
What Does Not Matter
July 31, 2018
Tariffs Factset reports the number of mentions of “tariffs” in earnings calls: Of these 159 companies, 70 (or 44%) cited the term “tariff” during the call. This number is above the numbers for the previous four quarters (through the same point in time in the earnings season). Clearly, tariffs have become a… Continue reading What Does Not Matter
Newsclips
Jim’s View: The Yield Curve Still Matters
July 31, 2018
The narrative in the financial press is the yield curve is no longer a good predictor of recession. We believe an inversion in the 3-month-to-10-year yield curve is problematic for the economy and financial markets. An inversion means the Fed is at risk to "breaking" the economy.
Newsclips
Diversifying is Becoming Increasingly Difficult
July 31, 2018
Rising correlation of both asset returns and volatility are concerning for the purposes of seeking diversification. Namely, the volatility of U.S. Treasuries and inflation expectations are reconnecting to the majority of asset classes.
Newsclips
More Bad News Than Good for Gold Investors
July 31, 2018
Bad news outweighs the good news for gold longs. Despite extreme short positioning and slowing net outflows from gold ETFs, we continue to see downside risks.
Newsclips
What We’re Reading
July 31, 2018
Today's topics the strong economy, tariff's effects on earnings, quant funds, active vs passive investing, the yuan, pension funds and FANG stocks.