The Fed has stated the stock market does not influence policy. However, the "Powell Put" could be tested as early as today should stocks break lower to their biggest correction in nearly three years.
Inflation expectations and Fed policy seem to move in lockstep with energy prices. The fall in crude has dampened inflation expectations, prompting the Fed to take a "wait-and-see" approach to hikes in 2019. Does all of this reverse if crude oil prices rebound? Is crude oil running Fed policy?
Rising volatility is sending investors out of leveraged loan ETFs. The pace of tightening in financial conditions remains a threat for both leveraged loans and high yield.
Today's topics include energy's effect on HY, the 'buy-the-dip' mentality, share buybacks, crude oil volatility, central bank independence, bitcoin's tumble, the Fed's data dependency, the LIBOR vs. EURIBOR spread and a fake news correction.
The handout, audio replay, webinar replay and summary of our December 6, 2018 conference call.
It has been a while since a newswire story signaling a potential change in Fed policy affected markets. But, yesterday's report that the Fed is weighing a "wait-and-see" approach did just that.
A graphical look at employment statistics through November.
Falling rate hike timing can be attributed to equal contributions by slowing global economic growth and inflation expectations. Heavy steepening positioning across the U.S. Treasury curve will be put to the test heading into year-end.
The financial sector is in investors' crosshairs as a rotation out of cyclical sectors continues. Asset managers and insurers have underperformed so far, but banks and diversified financials are more exposed to contracting leverage.
Today's topics include returns of highly leveraged companies, household net worth, inverted yield curves and recessions, excuses for the market turmoil, central bank independence, the Fed's new payment system, the U.S. trade deficit and Bostic's take on neutral.
A replay of our conference call on December 6, 2018.