Today's topics include market risks in 2019, the trade war, Trump says buy the dip, the overconfident Fed, Munchin on the hot seat, blame algos, the bull market, activist investors and retail sales.
Considering nobody knows exactly how the economy and markets will react to reductions in the Fed's balance sheet, terms like "automatic pilot" should be removed from the Fed's lexicon. The markets fear that QT, combined with the Fed's projections for two more rate hikes in 2019, could prove to be too much for the economy to handle.
Today's topics include a spike in volume, Mnuchin's wild weekend, crude oil projections, using betting markets to gauge consensus opinion, quant funds, a technical take on Bitcoin, the government shutdown and fallen angels.
Expansion is the natural state of an economy. Recessions happen because something breaks. We examine some of the main ingredients involved in past recessions.
Today's topics include Fed officials speaking about the markets, the struggling stock market, the markets and Fed are out of sync, falling crude oil prices, the dollar is having a bad week, LIBOR, quant funds and M&A activity falls in Q4.
A replay of our December 20, 2018 conference call.
Yesterday the markets reacted strongly to Powell's comments on the balance sheet.
Powell downplayed the stock market correction at yesterday's meeting.
FOMC statements in the Powell era remain short and to the point.