Traders often try to asses what the Fed will do versus what they should do. It appears the Fed will cut rates in September, barring a reversal by Powell this Friday in Jackson Hole. But should they cut rates?
Join us Today, August 21 for our next conference call.
Today's topics include the FOMC minutes show officials still worried about inflation, the politics behind the accusations against Lisa Cook, previewing Jackson Hole, the relationship between deficits & GDP growth, the big mac index, a dark horse for Powell's replacement?, yields on the rise, and buy the momentum dip
Today's topics include lower short rates do not guarantee lower long rates, what to look for in today's Fed minutes, a new era of fiscal dominance, the latest tariff headlines, more on Bessent's "models", foreign-born vs. native-born labor market, and stablecoins could be another source of demand for T-bills
Through Monday, 456 companies have reported 2nd quarter earnings. At an annualized quarterly growth rate of 10.53%, the feared earnings slowdown did not materialize as expected.
In the latest installment of Talking Data, Alex discusses long-term GDP & AI adoption.
Join us Thursday, August 21 for our next conference call.
Today's topics include more "wait & see" at Jackson Hole?, ranking countries' inflation problems, explaining divergent retail sales & jobs data, global yields on the rise, stock market concentration, S&P sees tariff revenue offsetting fiscal problems, and companies relying on crypto Treasuries as a business model.
Tariffs are increasingly raising prices for consumers. Slowing population growth is weakening the labor market, and rate cuts won’t solve the underlying issues. Despite market pressure, the Fed should focus on inflation and labor trends rather than short-term expectations.
The Commitments of Traders report enables investors to track changes in positions among various groups of traders/investors.