Media & Communications
Jim Bianco: A Fed rate cut could lead to bad news for Big Tech stocks
August 13, 2025
Investors are looking for an interest rate cut — but the market may not respond as expected when it comes.
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Will AI Drive Potential Growth Higher?
August 13, 2025
We have discussed labor inputs, capital investments and labor productivity, and the adoption potential of AI. We now examine whether AI can drive long-term potential growth higher.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
August 13, 2025
Today's topics include more on yesterday's CPI release, give an inch & they'll take a mile, the different ways of calculating tariffs, Fedspeak, Dudley shoots down idea that shrinking balance sheet could set table for rate cuts, strong balance sheet stocks post third weekly outperformance, modernizing government data collection, E.J. Antoni's credentials, the latest on Chinese trade negotiations, credit spreads narrow as government finances deteriorate, and buying vs. renting
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Cartoons
August 13, 2025
Newsclips
Are Weak Payrolls Due to Falling Population Growth?
August 12, 2025
Slowing payrolls and massive revisions might have more to do with collapsing population growth than a slowing economy. This is because the border is closed. Cutting rates to stimulate job growth will only lead to more inflation and exacerbate the problem.
Focused Research
Inflation Watch – Rate Cut Odds Move Slightly Higher
August 12, 2025
This morning's CPI release came in right at expectations. Traders pushed the odds of a rate cut marginally higher.
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Q2 Earnings Update: Beat Rate Well Above Last Year
August 12, 2025
Through Monday, 450 (90%) companies have reported, and the year-over-year annualized quarterly growth rate stands at 10.48%. This is slightly below recent quarters, but well above pre-reporting season estimates.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
August 12, 2025
Today's topics include an interview with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, extending China trade talks, new BLS nominee, stagflation concerns, more on the Nvidia revenue deal with White House, little recession talk, and financial regulation: how to decipher what's necessary & what's not
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Cartoons
August 12, 2025
Newsclips
Increasing Potential Growth Part III: AI Adoption & Outlook
August 11, 2025
The implementation of AI across the U.S. economy comes with challenges and caveats that will influence the new technology's overall impact on long-term potential growth.
Focused Research
CoT Commentary: Turnaround in Yen Holdings
August 11, 2025
The Commitments of Traders report enables investors to track changes in positions among various groups of traders/investors.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
August 11, 2025
Today's topics include previewing tomorrow's CPI report, Trump getting interested in the stock market, debating immigration's impact on labor market, could Miran bring more dissents to FOMC meetings?, timing the rate cuts, overhauling the BLS, who will pay for tariffs?, AI winners & losers, and housing supply & demand