Charts of the Week
Who Are the 2020 Leaders?
August 7, 2019
The betting markets are akin to a real-time poll. We use them to show how the 2020 election is unfolding.
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Weekly Research Roundup
August 7, 2019
Our top posts from the week of August 7, 2019.
Charts of the Week
LT Outlook: Housing Starts Since 1889
August 7, 2019
Housing starts peaked in 1972, just as waves of baby boomers began graduating college and starting families.
Newsclips
The Markets’ Messages
August 7, 2019
We cannot find any economist or Fed official who is predicting five cuts over the next 12 months. The markets see a mistake unfolding and are screaming about it via the inverted curve. The economic and Fed communities continue to forecast a slower path of cuts.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
August 7, 2019
Today's topics include U.S. Treasuries hit lowest levels since October 2016, corporate bonds, three central bank surprises, the trade war, the yuan, why cash may not be king for much longer, Fed outlook, the carry trade, consumers unlikely to feel benefit of Federal Reserve rate cuts, risk of rising inflation and the age of wealth accumulation is over.
Newsclips
Cartoons
August 7, 2019
Newsclips
Earnings Update: Q2 2019 Is 80% Complete
August 6, 2019
Now that roughly 80% of S&P 500 companies have reported, Q2 2019 earnings growth has bounced back to 1.47%. However, Q3 2019 estimates are negative and full-year estimates continue to fall and are down to just 3.09%.
Newsclips
Turnaround Tuesday?
August 6, 2019
What gets the Fed to cut 50 bps in September? A 7% to 10% correction gets the conversation going.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
August 6, 2019
Today's topics include an independent Fed, the trade war becomes a currency war, the inverted curve, negative-yielding bonds, employment, Trump has made himself the recession's scapegoat, Brazil's economy and the biggest hedge startup starts trading.
Newsclips
Cartoons
August 6, 2019
Newsclips
The Dissenters’ Case For Not Cutting Rates
August 5, 2019
Eric Rosengren and Esther George recently offered their arguments for holding rates steady. We see larger risks in a slow rate cut campaign than in a fast rate cut campaign.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
August 5, 2019
Today's topics include the currency war, FOMC communication problems, negative rates, timing the rate cuts, market liquidity, payment systems in the U.S., trade partners, drama at the New York Fed and the origins of bull markets.