Charts of the Week
Who Are the 2020 Leaders?
July 24, 2019
The betting markets are akin to a real-time poll. We use them to show how the Democrat candidates are doing in securing the nomination.
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Trump’s Approval Rating
July 24, 2019
Trump's approval rating and re-election odds have been on the rise in 2019.
Charts of the Week
Weekly Research Roundup
July 24, 2019
Our top posts from the week of July 22, 2019.
Charts of the Week
LT Outlook: Federal Finances
July 24, 2019
A look at government spending and income since the 1700s
Newsclips
GDP Trackers on Same Page for Q2 Growth
July 24, 2019
GDP trackers, or nowcasts, are largely on the same page regarding Q2 GDP growth for the first time in a long while.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
July 24, 2019
Today's topics include central banks debating their inflation targets, what falling real yields mean for the U.S. economy, the July Fed meeting, the muni bond market, Mnuchin vs Amazon, Deutsche Bank, Brexit and sources of alternative data.
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Cartoons
July 24, 2019
Newsclips
The Biggest Issue for the Fed Next Week, Un-inverting the Yield Curve
July 23, 2019
The Fed should discuss why U.S. interest rates are the highest in the world and heed the message from the inverted curve. If they take too long to address this issue, they risk creating a recession.
Newsclips
Earnings Season Continues
July 23, 2019
Q2 1019 earnings reporting season continues as 85 of the S&P 500 companies (17%) have reported through July 22. Q2 2019 earnings growth is still expected to be negative. Revenue growth is expected to be just 3% and guidance is turning lower.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
July 23, 2019
Today's topics include disrupter stocks and everything else, Larry Fink wants the ECB to buy equities, why the ECB should consider cutting rates on Thursday, Japan, a debt ceiling deal is reached, the Fed's evolving monetary policy approach, investor sentiment vs stock prices, junk bond fund draws record inflows in June, the pound as a Brexit barometer, more on Judy Shelton, Bridgewater is having a poor year, the lesson of Bretton Woods, stock buybacks and Boris Johnson wins race to be next British Prime Minister.
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Cartoons
July 23, 2019
Newsclips
Why Is the Fed Cutting Rates?
July 22, 2019
The Fed has now made it clear they are cutting 25 basis points next week. While we have our reasons for favoring rate cuts, we have not heard a good argument articulated by the Fed. Is data dependency dead?