Today's topics include the manufacturing industry's struggles, fiscal stimulus vs. monetary stimulus, GDP nowcasts, pinpointing potential GDP, high-end real estate takes a hit, the growth of auto loans, the potential pitfalls of central bank cryptocurrencies, protest in Hong Kong, the current state of machine learning in quant analysis, interest rates matter and refis.
Stock and bond total returns in 2019 are among the best of the past several decades.
Today's topics include negative rates and financial modeling, problems in South Korea, strategists see low rates for long time, record corporate debt issuance in September, the repo market makes it through quarter-end, stock valuations, Fannie & Freddie take a step toward privatization, a comparison of ETFs to mutual funds and a look ahead to Q3 earnings.
Predictit.org is the largest election betting market in the United States. Bettors believe an impeachment is likely, but conviction is unlikely. For now, they do not believe this will have a big effect on Trump's 2020 fortunes. The impeachment story has probably affected the Democrat side of the equation more, as Biden's odds are slumping, Warren's are surging and Hillary's non-campaign is even picking up steam.
Monthly fund flows through August 31, 2019
Today's topics include the Chinese economy, Chinese listings on U.S. exchanges, manufacturing in Europe, the 100-year Austrian bond, gold as a high-yielding investment, more on the repo market, the number of stocks at 52-week highs, Draghi's call for fiscal stimulus, long-term dollar cycles, the cost of uncertainty and protests in Hong Kong.
An aging developed-world population is driving a global savings glut. This is driving a massive bid for fixed-income investments, resulting in negative real yields across the developed world. Do not look for this to reverse anytime soon.
Today's topics include banking regulations, a standing repo facility, passive investing's effect on market stability, checking in on IPOs, behind the scenes of the ECB's backlash against Draghi, using regulatory tools to address financial stability and comparing Tobin's Q to Shiller's CAPE.