Q3 2019 earnings season begins this week. Analysts estimate S&P 500 earnings growth declined by 3.57%. Typically, as earnings season begins and companies beat artificially low estimates, this growth figure bounces 3.92%. If this historical average holds in Q3, earnings should barely eke out positive growth.
Today's topics include the temperature of the economy, temporary repo operations become a bit more permanent, reaching for yield with muni bonds, AI taking over investing, is ECB policy too loose or too tight, underfunded pensions, the future of social security, stock market sentiment, the IPO landscape, replacing fed funds as the target rate and passive investing.
Technology is squashing inflation and a global savings glut is driving yields below these already low inflation rates. So for yields to get back up to 4% or 5%, something has to break. We believe this scenario would be toxic for risk markets like equities.
Private labor earnings growth turned lower on the back of markedly lower average hourly earnings in September.
Today's topics include the odds of Fed cuts, central bankers' race lower, the rise of BBB-rated corporate debt, some regulatory relief for banks, the smart money flows index turns lower, Silicon Valley's IPO problem, your daily dose of the debate between fiscal and monetary stimulus and calculating job growth to keep the status quo.
A replay of our October 3, 2019 conference call
Stocks cannot handle high rates, as in a 10-year yield above 3.25%.
The latest from the betting markets on impeachment and the 2020 race
Today's topics include fixes for the repo market, a look at the reversal rate, the world's effect on the U.S., more opposition to ECB policy, stock market seasonality and a preview of the payroll report.