Q3 2019 earnings season begins this week. Analysts estimate S&P 500 earnings growth declined by 3.77%. Typically, as earnings season begins and companies beat artificially low estimates, this growth figure bounces almost 4%. If this historical average holds in Q3, earnings should barely eke out positive growth.
Today's topics include a Barron's cover story on negative rates, predicting an end to the bond rally, college endowments, recession predictions, stock versus bond flows, the trend toward smaller private equity deals, inflation as an economic indicator, the dollar's relentless rise, doubting Warren Buffett, a hedge fund suspends withdrawals, the latest on the trade war, Trump's reliance on the stock market and the race for the Democrat nomination.
Global growth is weighing on the U.S. markets more than domestic growth. Global growth needs to turn higher for the U.S. market to truly recover and long-term U.S. rates to meaningfully rise.
Today's topics include the yield curve uninverts, Chinese capital flight, the latest on the trade war, using profit margins to predict recessions, Draghi's legacy, the shift from stocks to bonds, Kashkari argues for another rate cut, making money with no trading fees, shadow banking, fiscal versus monetary policy and low inflation expectations.
Chairman Powell and Governor Brainard recently talked about a policy called yield curve control. This has been tried in the past with disappointing results.
A look at inflation statistics through September
Today's topics include a wild overnight trading session, the Fed's repo operations, the latest on the trade war, the FOMC minutes, the Fed is hiring a speech writer, Draghi vs. the ECB, Vanguard ETF's big equity outflow, fiscal vs. monetary policy, Greece issues negative-yielding debt, the yield curve as a recession indicator, Trump's impeachment odds, Trump's Twitter activity and replacing LIBOR.
The Fed has ensured a steady supply of repo money will be available to banks until the end of October, which happens to coincide with the next FOMC meeting.
For the first time since 1915-1918, U.S. life expectancy has declined for three straight years. The U.S. also lags far behind the rest of the developed world in life expectancy.