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Total Return Review – Stocks & Bonds Continue Strong Year
October 1, 2019
Stock and bond total returns in 2019 are among the best of the past several decades.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
October 1, 2019
Today's topics include negative rates and financial modeling, problems in South Korea, strategists see low rates for long time, record corporate debt issuance in September, the repo market makes it through quarter-end, stock valuations, Fannie & Freddie take a step toward privatization, a comparison of ETFs to mutual funds and a look ahead to Q3 earnings.
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Cartoons
October 1, 2019
Newsclips
How to Measure Impeachment
September 30, 2019
Predictit.org is the largest election betting market in the United States. Bettors believe an impeachment is likely, but conviction is unlikely. For now, they do not believe this will have a big effect on Trump's 2020 fortunes. The impeachment story has probably affected the Democrat side of the equation more, as Biden's odds are slumping, Warren's are surging and Hillary's non-campaign is even picking up steam.
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Monthly Fund Flows – Money Leaving Stock Funds in Favor of Bond Funds
September 30, 2019
Monthly fund flows through August 31, 2019
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
September 30, 2019
Today's topics include the Chinese economy, Chinese listings on U.S. exchanges, manufacturing in Europe, the 100-year Austrian bond, gold as a high-yielding investment, more on the repo market, the number of stocks at 52-week highs, Draghi's call for fiscal stimulus, long-term dollar cycles, the cost of uncertainty and protests in Hong Kong.
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Cartoons
September 30, 2019
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Real Yields and the Global Savings Glut
September 27, 2019
An aging developed-world population is driving a global savings glut. This is driving a massive bid for fixed-income investments, resulting in negative real yields across the developed world. Do not look for this to reverse anytime soon.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
September 27, 2019
Today's topics include banking regulations, a standing repo facility, passive investing's effect on market stability, checking in on IPOs, behind the scenes of the ECB's backlash against Draghi, using regulatory tools to address financial stability and comparing Tobin's Q to Shiller's CAPE.
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Cartoons
September 27, 2019
Newsclips
What Does the Market Want the Fed to Do?
September 26, 2019
The fed funds futures market is being distorted by problems in the repo market. In turn, this means the implied odds of any future rate cuts are also being distorted.