Newsclips
About Last Night … And Beyond
November 4, 2020
Once the votes made a divided government a high likelihood, the markets reacted by decreasing the odds of further fiscal stimulus. Bond yields fell and the stock market is up.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
November 4, 2020
Today's topics include one election certainty - divided government, economic activity falls for second straight month in Europe, treasury announces issuance schedule through January, election volatility bets, OPEC considering further production cuts, Chinese currency intervention, and the Bank of England meets tomorrow.
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Cartoons
November 4, 2020
Newsclips
Election Day!
November 3, 2020
With election day finally upon us, we check in on the polls and betting markets one last time.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
November 3, 2020
Today's topics include Powell post-election, virus cases continue upward, the stock market is not the economy, central bank bond purchases, consumer savings & spending habits, updated Treasury borrowing estimates, currency volatility, utilities outperform, quant performance, and polls vs. betting markets
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Cartoons
November 3, 2020
Newsclips
One Day to Go
November 2, 2020
With one day to go, the divergence between betting markets and polls remains very wide. The difference may be due to differing opinions on a "hidden Trump vote." Pollsters do not think it exists, but betting markets do.
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Earnings Update: The Highest Beat Rate on Record
November 2, 2020
To-date, 295 S&P 500 companies (59%) have reported earnings. 87% beat estimates, a record pace. Despite these good results, the outlook for stock gains is bleak given still-high valuations.
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Total Return Review: A Look at Returns Through October
November 2, 2020
Despite many markets moving sideways over the past few months, 2020 remains a year of extreme returns.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
November 2, 2020
Today's topics include A "red mirage" coming tomorrow?, searching for the limits of fiscal policy, using hedge funds to hedge a portfolio?, quantifying the costs of lockdowns, prime money market funds, IPO boom, more on big tech's probe, factories during the second wave, speculators' bullish S&P 500 bets hit 2-year high, updating UK lockdown, when will the recovery regain its previous high?, and stocks & the election
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Cartoons
November 2, 2020
Charts of the Week
Strong Balance Sheet Stocks Outperforming in 2020
October 30, 2020
Weak balance sheet stocks may have handily outperformed strong balance sheet stocks from 2009 through 2019, but that has not been the case in 2020.