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Twelve Days Until the Election
October 22, 2020
While polls are tightening, Biden still has a comfortable lead. The betting markets see this as a much closer race.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
October 22, 2020
Today's topics include the case against MMT, the case for fiscal spending, Eurozone deficits, more on Chinese bonds, the growth of private lending funds, the dollar as the world's currency reserve, Robinhood's rise, and more from Tim Duy on consumer spending
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Cartoons
October 22, 2020
Newsclips
Europe’s COVID Counts Spiking Higher
October 21, 2020
COVID cases are spiking again in Europe. Deaths are now following. Rising infection counts continue to matter for the global economy.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
October 21, 2020
Today's topics include the bond ratings game in China, the junk bond market, monitoring the costs of the pandemic, savings' effect on consumer spending, a deeper dive into the labor market, everything is expensive, the 'do nothing' trade, active vs. passive, and shipping rates spike
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Cartoons
October 21, 2020
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The Case for Inflation in 2021?
October 20, 2020
The combination of an economic contraction reducing the supply of goods and massive fiscal and monetary stimulus supporting demand for goods should produce inflation. This should especially be the case after April 2021 when the year-over-year changes exclude the lock-down period.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
October 20, 2020
Today's topics include betting on higher long rates, huge demand for EU bonds, China's growing equity markets, searching for a hedge to risk assets, bank stocks, arguing against dividends, more on Nasdaq speculation, and fixed income factor investing
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Cartoons
October 20, 2020
Conference Calls
Inflation Will Be the Biggest Story to Watch in 2021
October 19, 2020
A replay of our October 22, 2020 conference call
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Earnings Update: Better Results, High Valuations Remain
October 19, 2020
To-date, 49 S&P 500 companies (10%) have reported earnings. 84% beat estimates. The average quarterly beat rate since 2009 is 70%.