A big part of bank/financial stock performance is tied to the outlook of interest rates, spreads (net interest margins), and the reason why rates are moving (growth or inflation). We understand why higher rates are considered good for banks for now. But when/if this view flips to a belief that inflation is returning, rising rates will no longer benefit banks.
Today's topics include the Fed put, zombie debt, growth vs. value, how effective was the paycheck protection program?, Tesla to join the S&P 500, Musk now third richest in world, VIX ETF flows, and a call to change daily redemption rules
The market is starting to see a Fed hike on the distant horizon. This is how a shift in thinking begins. The driving reason for this change seems to be a resurgence of inflation over booming real growth.
To-date, 463 S&P 500 companies (93%) have reported earnings. 85% beat estimates, a record pace.
Today's topics include debt to GDP around the world, spending vs. saving, expiring pandemic relief, saving the 60/40 portfolio, more on last week's stock rotation, a bottleneck for U.S. exporters, hedge funds shorting the Robinhood crowd, passive investing, and junk bonds
Today's topics include bond portfolio trading, inflation talk, still searching for a replacement for the 60/40 portfolio, liquidity, Japan's attempts to save Its banking sector, a housing bubble, Judy Shelton's nomination, Brainard for treasury secretary?, and vaccine supply
A replay of our November 13, 2020 conference call
Medical care costs declined by their largest amount on record in October.
Today's topics include valuations on equities, back on NYC real estate, lockdowns this time around and their effect, world economy guide for 2050: China edition, more stimulus in India, funds win on election result, vaccine and oil, the race for AI, pandemic nosedive on deposit rates, global food supplies withstand COVID-19, Goldman's big S&P 4300 call, and president elect Biden on China