Today's topics include one election certainty - divided government, economic activity falls for second straight month in Europe, treasury announces issuance schedule through January, election volatility bets, OPEC considering further production cuts, Chinese currency intervention, and the Bank of England meets tomorrow.
With election day finally upon us, we check in on the polls and betting markets one last time.
Today's topics include Powell post-election, virus cases continue upward, the stock market is not the economy, central bank bond purchases, consumer savings & spending habits, updated Treasury borrowing estimates, currency volatility, utilities outperform, quant performance, and polls vs. betting markets
With one day to go, the divergence between betting markets and polls remains very wide. The difference may be due to differing opinions on a "hidden Trump vote." Pollsters do not think it exists, but betting markets do.
To-date, 295 S&P 500 companies (59%) have reported earnings. 87% beat estimates, a record pace. Despite these good results, the outlook for stock gains is bleak given still-high valuations.
Despite many markets moving sideways over the past few months, 2020 remains a year of extreme returns.
Today's topics include A "red mirage" coming tomorrow?, searching for the limits of fiscal policy, using hedge funds to hedge a portfolio?, quantifying the costs of lockdowns, prime money market funds, IPO boom, more on big tech's probe, factories during the second wave, speculators' bullish S&P 500 bets hit 2-year high, updating UK lockdown, when will the recovery regain its previous high?, and stocks & the election
Weak balance sheet stocks may have handily outperformed strong balance sheet stocks from 2009 through 2019, but that has not been the case in 2020.
Personal consumption bounced back in Q3, contributing a record 25.27% to real GDP's annualized growth of 33.10%.