“Will you hike if yields rise?” “We will not hike if yields rise. We will not catch you by surprise. We will not hike on Phillips Curve. We will not hike if prices swerve. Not when inflation gets to 2, Not when U3 hits NAIRU. Do not ask me any more! Full employment, not before!”… Continue reading Cartoons
Twitter: Robin Brooks @RobinBrooksIIF The share of US debt held by foreigners has fallen to its lowest level since 2002 (lhs, blue). That’s not due to foreign selling, but rather that foreigners aren’t buying (rhs, pink), even as US debt issuance has skyrocketed (rhs, black). Foreigners are on a buyer’s strike… Tweet Peter Forbes:… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – March 18th, 2021
Given the struggles in Australia and Japan with yield curve control, should U.S. bond short sellers be afraid of the Fed?
Yesterday the Fed reiterated its stance on keeping rates at zero. Powell may have also let the cat out of the bag regarding an upcoming announcement on the supplemental leverage ratio.
Today's topics include consumer spending, problems with the global supply chain, the unintended consequences of central bank purchases, dollar concerns, understanding Fedspeak, SPACs vs. short sellers, China's casino market reputation, and dip in housing starts
Jay Powell has two issues to address today. Convince the market has benign inflation forecast is correct and what to do about plunging short rates. Both are going to be difficult.
Today's topics include fretting over inflation, some perspective on Treasury losses & term premium, another wave of retail buying?, disruption brings winners & losers, stocks & the economy, banks' swelling balance sheets, bitcoin as an inflation hedge, and Cathie Wood copycats
Ben Breitholtz: Consumer spending by low-middle income households saw a large jump in vacation-related services into the end of February. Might help explain some of the out-performance across airlines as of late. The JETS ETF is up over 28% YTD. Ben Breitholtz: Regarding market-based inflation expectations across the globe, the average 10-year inflation breakeven… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – March 16th, 2021
Although foreigners have added to their Treasury holdings since the pandemic started, they now own a smaller share of the market thanks to the Fed's massive purchases.
Today's topics include things to watch for at tomorrow's Fed meeting, Treasury selloff spreads, ARK again, a dovish Fed, US small businesses, fueling the stimulus-driven market rally, pulling money out of China, millions spent on crypto art and NFTs, the economic gap, oil rally's effects, and young people & dismal returns