Today's topics include placing names on Fed dots, this past year's historic stock returns, the art of stock picking, prices at the pump, the Ark effect in thematic ETFs, options volume, raw materials on the rise, and a strong dollar
With stimulus checks now being mailed out, several measures of short-term rates may be worth watching as barometers of potential trouble.
Today's topics include moving on to the next economic package, bond yields rise until something breaks, Powell & Yellen make the rounds on Capitol Hill, the top 1% add to their wealth, central bank purchases, tech stocks, credit utilization, compressed forward breakeven term structure, and the Fed's remittances to the Treasury
Peter Forbes: TSA passenger volume on the rise. Latest Google search data show interest in more ambitious travel (air travel, theme parks, etc) rising steadily. Tweet Jim Bianco: John Authers has a good piece about the bond market today. Worth reading and commenting on. Bloomberg: The Bond Market’s Weird and Scary Breakdown Is Still… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – March 22nd, 2021
Although the reduction in dealers' net Treasury position may indicate the market is oversold and poised for a rally, large speculators' net positions are rather neutral. Any rally in bonds should be viewed as a respite rally rather than an end to the rise in rates.
Today's topics include interest rate forecasts are crucial to UBI & MMT, the time the treasury market broke, bond vigilantes vs. the Fed, keeping an eye on this week's 7-year auction, the corporate bond market, Summers continues to warn on fiscal policy, more on the Fed's SLR decision, El-Erian questions the Fed's control of bond market, stock inflows, and your daily dose of Cathie Wood stories
Twitter: Rick Rieder @RickRieder We’re in the midst of witnessing #BondMarketHistory, as the peak to trough drawdown for the Barclays Long Treasury Index now exceeds -20% (not including today’s move), its worst #drawdown going back 40 years and meeting what many consider to be a bear #market! Tweet Jim Bianco: Primary Dealer positions are… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – March 19th, 2021
Funding markets are under stress and negative rates are a possibility. On the other end of the curve, higher rates continue.
Today's topics include Jay Powell speaks, inflation vs. reflation, GDP forecasts keep going up, could inflation force the Fed's hand?, BoJ battle against deflation, 'deep value' stocks, inflation & the labor market, moving bitcoin, and more on home equity loans