With Q3 2021 earnings season starting next week, we check in on expectations for the S&P 500. While valuation metrics have come off their peak, very strong earnings will again be needed to continue to justify prices.
Today's topics include the latest on the debt ceiling, the cost of servicing debt, alternative measures of inflation, COVID has peaked in the U.S., updating Powell's odds of another term, stock/bond correlation, stock flows vs. prices, assessing the risk of stagflation, where's the wave of evictions?, the blurred line between TradFi & DeFi, and CBDCs & dollar hegemony
If you have any further questions on this material please contact me at: gus.handler@arborresearch.com Ben Breitholtz: Global governments (and the aggregate index) having their worst year on record looking back to 1999: Greg Blaha: Energy having its best year since at least 1984: Ben Breitholtz: Table below shows risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe ratios) by asset for… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – October 1st, 2021
In the third quarter, Chinese stocks underperformed U.S. stocks by their largest degree in 20 years. Meanwhile, energy commodities are having their best year since at least 1984.
Today's topics include two contrasting views on gas, bond's to have a rough year, Payroll Trouble?, ARKK's outflows, low auto inventory, the economy's problem, Evergrande crisis spreads, and the next web
If you have any further questions on this material please contact me at: gus.handler@arborresearch.com Bianco Research Conference Call Replay – Tapering and Markets The Fed seems intent on announcing its taper at the November 3rd FOMC meeting. What does this mean for markets? And how does inflation, whether temporary or persistent, fit into this? The… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – September 30th, 2021
Whether energy crunch pressures spread around the globe, shortages in Europe and China will most definitely impact growth as increasing prices and factory disruptions continue to mount. Is the global economy ready to handle yet another downside risk to growth?
Despite stocks massively outperforming bonds since QE began in 2009, bond funds have seen much larger inflows.
Today's topics include averting a shutdown, S&P holds onto quarterly gains, thoughts on biggest risks, rents continue rising, Powell's path to renomination, global supply chain risks, US shortages, and how a housing crisis can hit China