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Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – October 19th, 2021

October 19, 2021

If you have any further questions on this material please contact me at: gus.handler@arborresearch.com Ben Breitholtz: Building permits worse than any forecast at -7.7%, but remember this is a VERY noisy series. Only the Midwest saw permits rise in September. Twitter: Ben Casselman @bencasselman So far, the “Great Resignation” is mostly a blue-collar phenomenon — job-to-job… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – October 19th, 2021

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TIC Update – Perspective on the Fed’s Treasury Holdings

October 19, 2021

The Fed's holdings of Treasury securities continues to grow and remains larger than all other central banks' holdings combined.

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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading

October 19, 2021

Today's topics include fund managers most bearish on bonds on record, Zillow's effect on the housing market, Yellen targets December 3 debt ceiling deadline, more on the 60/40 portfolio, who is the recovery leaving out?, Powell's odds of reappointment take a hit, charting the supply chain's problems, Fitch notes stablecoins' growth could affect short-term debt markets, know your 'roll' in futures investing, and France tests crypto bond deals.

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Cartoons

October 19, 2021

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Media & Communications

Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – October 18th, 2021

October 18, 2021

If you have any further questions on this material please contact me at: gus.handler@arborresearch.com Ben Breitholtz joins Oliver Renick to discuss correlation trends in the bond market, as well as to analyze the qualitative and quantitative impacts of hawkish Fed language on the market’s growth story. Ben Breitholtz: Up go short-term rates! Ubiquitous rise just… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – October 18th, 2021

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We Want Stuff!

October 18, 2021

Demand is outstripping the supply chain's ability to ship goods.

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Q3 Earnings Update: Another Record Quarter on Tap?

October 18, 2021

As Q3 earnings season kicks into gear, we check in with earnings estimates. Aggressive earnings forecasts in the first two quarters of 2021 still proved to be too low. To date, 41 companies have reported earnings with a beat rate of 85%. Companies are already surprising to the upside. Will this be another record quarter?

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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading

October 18, 2021

Today's topics include checking in on Powell's odds of remaining Fed chair, betting on $200 crude oil, the problems with clean energy, stagflation, higher wages, does passive investing skew capital investment?, Chinese junk bonds, higher car prices, rising rents, and crypto news.

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October 18, 2021

Media & Communications

Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – October 15th, 2021

October 15, 2021

If you have any further questions on this material please contact me at: gus.handler@arborresearch.com Kelley Blue Book: Average New Car Sells for Over $45,000 in September Sean Tucker – In September, the average new car in America sold for $45,031. That’s the first time the average transaction price has crossed the $45,000 barrier and the… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research and Arbor Data Science – October 15th, 2021

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Newsclips

The Supply Chain – Too Much Demand

October 15, 2021

The supply chain is running at capacity and cannot keep up with overstimulated demand thanks to fiscal and monetary policy of the last 18 months. This suggests the fix is not expanding supply, which would be hard in the short term, but to raise prices high enough to reduce demand.

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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading

October 15, 2021

Today's topics include Evergrande, checking in on supply crunch, explaining low yields away, China energy issues continue, financial challenges due to COVID, is inflation good?, and stablecoin thoughts.