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Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – February 7th, 2022

February 7, 2022

Jim Bianco: Spotify stock is down by almost half since it fall peak.  The latest acceleration lower is the fear that they might lost Joe Rogan. And Rumble has stepped in today and offer Rogan $100 million to move to their platform. Twitter: Rumble @rumblevideo Hey @joerogan, we are ready to fight alongside you. See the note… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – February 7th, 2022

Newsclips

Q4 Earnings Update: Forecasts Matter More Than Earnings

February 7, 2022

Fourth quarter earnings have come in high versus historical norms, albeit slightly below previous quarters. Company guidance has shifted as companies prepare for a new paradigm of higher inflation and tighter monetary policy.

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Newsclips

Quick Comments/What We’re Reading

February 7, 2022

Today's topics include what is the Fed's priority, room to hike?, short-term staffing, rate hikes & stocks, central bankers vs. inflation, more on the payrolls revisions, backwardation in the commodities markets, European gas supplies, a Chinese slowdown, cash on the sidelines, corporate bond traders looking for cover, and regulating crypto

Newsclips

Cartoons

February 7, 2022

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Media & Communications

Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – February 4th, 2022

February 4, 2022

Jim Bianco: *U.S. AVERAGE RETAIL GASOLINE PRICE SURGES TO HIGHEST SINCE 2014 Twitter: Jonathan Ferro @FerroTV Payrolls estimates todayMedian: 125k High: 250k Low: -400k CPI estimates next week   Median: 7.3% High: 7.6% Low: 7% Tweet Jim Bianco: Boy did everyone gets this wrong! 1.26% 2-year Two-month revisions was +709K (no typo!!)  Dec went from 199k to… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – February 4th, 2022

Newsclips

Employment in Pictures – A Note on Annual Benchmark Revisions

February 4, 2022

The January payrolls number exceeded even the most optimistic estimates. While the focus remains on inflation, the odds of a 50 basis point hike in March have begun to move higher.

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Newsclips

Quick Comments/What We’re Reading

February 4, 2022

Today's topics include small businesses raising wages, capital investment will continue , used car prices peaking?, how high will rates go?, ECB hawkish shift, learning from the past, where did all the workers go?, liquidity holes arrive & cause issues, measuring real inflation is extremely difficult, and Meta's record value wipeout comes as hawks arrive

Newsclips

Cartoons

February 4, 2022

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Charts of the Week

Revisiting Inventories to Sales Ratios

February 4, 2022

Even if automobiles are excluded, retailers' inventories-to-sales ratio is near an all-time low.

Charts of the Week

The Idea of a 50 Basis Point Hike Gains Some Steam

February 4, 2022

The market currently expects hikes at each of the next four meetings. The idea of a 50 basis point hike at the March meeting gained a bit of steam after Friday's payrolls report.

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Charts of the Week

Age Matters in Inflation Expectations

February 4, 2022

Those aged 60+ consistently have higher inflation expectations than those under 40.

Charts of the Week

Value Stocks vs. Growth Stocks

February 4, 2022

Value had a great month or two relative to growth. In the short-term some sort of mean reversal would not be a surprise. However, long-term value has barely begun its retracement of growth's outperformance of the past 15 years.