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Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – January 31st, 2022
January 31, 2022
Jim Bianco: Remember the market has five hikes priced in. So this contest of one upping each other on rate hikes is really a race to agree with market pricing. Twitter: Jonathan Ferro @FerroTV 2022 Fed hike guesses MS: 4 DB: 5 GS: 5 Citi: 5 JPM: 5 Tweet Here is the state of Fed policy… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – January 31st, 2022
Newsclips
The Curve Flattens More
January 31, 2022
The yield curve's flattening is a sign of growing concern that the Fed is going to hike too much and break something. The curve is not inverted, which would signal the market believes things are already breaking, but it is rapidly moving toward that level.
Newsclips
Q4 Earnings Update: All Eyes on Tech
January 31, 2022
Q4 2021 earnings season is underway with 168 (34%) S&P500 companies already reporting results. Earnings growth is expected to be 23.65%.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
January 31, 2022
Today's topics include inflation & yields, volatility to stick around, making the decision to not make a decision, Russian tensions make the European energy crisis more concerning, wealth fund sounds the persistent inflation alarm, Nasdaq set for the worst opening month ever, the new multi-strategy paradigm, winding down MBS purchases proving painful, and IMF concerned over crypto in emerging markets
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Cartoons
January 31, 2022
Long Term Charts
The Big Issue for 2022
January 28, 2022
The Fed is intent on addressing inflation, which may require putting asset markets under stress. Wall Street and investors are not yet convinced the Fed will get aggressive. This game of chicken is the story of 2022.
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The Supply Chain Is Not Improving
January 28, 2022
Despite Wall Street's proclamations, there are still few signs the supply chain is getting better. Now Fed Chair Jay Powell agrees.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
January 28, 2022
Today's topics include more on yesterday's GDP release, this tightening cycle is different, why do stocks rally overnight?, BofA sees no sign of capitulation yet, the VIX's streak, watch for liquidity holes, dwindling car production, stock allocations for retirees, mysterious ETF inflows, and crypto's correlation to risk assets
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Cartoons
January 28, 2022
Media & Communications
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – January 27th, 2022
January 27, 2022
Bianco Research Conference Call Replay: The Markets Get Volatile The replay of our January 27, 2022 conference call titled The Market Gets Volatile can be found here. Jim Bianco joins Fox Business to discuss yesterday’s FOMC Announcement, the Bond and Stock Market Jim Bianco: 1.20% 2-year, up 19 bps since the release of the statement… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – January 27th, 2022
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Market Capitalization as a Percentage of GDP
January 27, 2022
A look at the size of various markets compared to the U.S. economy