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Why We Have a Hot Housing Market
April 20, 2022
Inflation is at multi-decade highs, interest rates are rising, and the Fed has signaled they are willing to do anything necessary to bring down inflation. Despite this backdrop, the housing market is as hot as ever. We argue this is not a bubble, but a fundamental shift in demand.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
April 20, 2022
Today's topics include yields rise until something breaks, U.S. real yields go positive, central banks' data-dependency, buybacks as a market-timing tool, inflation & debt burdens, anecdotal evidence of a tight labor market, and UN estimates one third of this year's crops won't be harvested in Ukraine
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Cartoons
April 20, 2022
Newsclips
How Serious Should the Fed Be?
April 19, 2022
The market is concerned the Fed has fallen behind on the inflation front, so yields are spiking and bank stocks are falling in kind. The remedy is for the Fed to get serious and start raising rates 50 basis points at every meeting going forward. Yes, this risks the Fed doing too much and breaking something. But this is the consequence of the Fed dismissing inflation as transitory last year and staying way too easy for way too long.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
April 19, 2022
Today's topics include the Japanese bond market, the odds of a soft landing, U.S. real yields march higher, Bullard pushes back on idea of 75 basis point hike, stock outflows, stock splits for the retail crowd, World Bank may downgrade global economy further, Tesla & ARK, and Russian crude oil flows
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Cartoons
April 19, 2022
Media & Communications
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – April 18th, 2022
April 18, 2022
Jim Bianco joins CNBC’s Closing Bell to discuss Rate Hikes & how the Fed views Earnings Season Jim Bianco: The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index began in 1990. Its market value is currently $62.8 TRILLION and has over 28,000 member bonds. Its market value is down over $5 trillion YTD. As the chart shows, nothing close… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – April 18th, 2022
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TIC Update – The Fed vs. the World
April 18, 2022
The Fed's holdings of Treasury securities continues to grow and remains larger than all other central banks' holdings combined.
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Q1 2022 Earnings Update
April 18, 2022
With Q1 2022 earnings season starting this week, we check in on expectations. Revenue and earnings growth expectations are in the mid-single digits and company guidance remains negative.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
April 18, 2022
Today's topics include what the future holds with the Fed in control, Russian sanctions, next Bretton Woods, slowing global economic momentum, Chinese GDP surprises to the upside, the market's future, living with high inflation, and stability in crypto