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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
April 6, 2022
Today's topics include looking for QT clues, quantifying the effect of QT, Dudley says stocks must fall before inflation is under control, bonds at a discount, supply chain problems persist, Russia to pay debt in Rubles, and the housing market
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Cartoons
April 6, 2022
Newsclips
Extreme Positioning Shift Across Markets
April 5, 2022
Risk markets are rallying in the face of an inverted yield curve, the highest inflation in 40 years, and continuing war in Ukraine. We discuss current market positioning.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
April 5, 2022
Today's topics include consumer spending, inflation concerns, bond market routs, more sanctions for Russia?, Russia's debt payments, comparing the strong labor market to aggressive fiscal policy, the great resignation, and overcollateralized crypto loans
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Cartoons
April 5, 2022
Newsclips
The 10-Year When the Curve Inverts
April 4, 2022
When the 10-year less 2-year yield curve inverts, 10-year yields often peak. When the 10-year less 2-year yield curve turns positive again, the Fed is often about to start cutting rates to head off a recession. 10-year yields historically decline during this period.
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Q1 2022 Earnings Preview
April 4, 2022
With Q1 2022 earnings season starting this week, we check in on expectations. Revenue and earnings growth expectations are in the mid-single digits and company guidance remains negative.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
April 4, 2022
Today's topics include what is neutral?, the inverted curve, recession calls, tapping the SPR, record UK energy bills, remote work, supply chain problems remain, booming hotel prices, Shanghai locks down, regulators look at LME's handling of nickel market, tether fud, and crypto's AML practices
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Cartoons
April 4, 2022
Media & Communications
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – April 1st, 2022
April 1, 2022
Jim Bianco: Craig Fuller, the CEO if Freightwaves believes a recession is imminent. I’ve been reading American Shipper and Freightwaves for over a year now (both publications have the same owner). They have been dead right about the state of shipping, and continue to argue it is a mess. Now the CEO of both of… Continue reading Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – April 1st, 2022
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Employment in Pictures – The Jobs Market Continues to Improve
April 1, 2022
Despite today's payrolls report slightly missing estimates, the jobs market continues to improve.