When Powell described the labor market as being in good shape, he was saying it could handle aggressive rate hikes without massive job losses. Will he signal this again and set the stage for a 75 basis point hike in June?
Long-term debt and equity traders still think the fed funds market has priced in too many hikes. Stock and bond traders initially perceived inflation to be transitory. Now they believe the Fed is on the verge of going too far and breaking something.
Today's topics include about that 75 basis point hike in June..., Hong Kong's currency peg, Minerd calls the end of the bond bull, trade deficit grows, job openings remain abundant, Quarles predicts recession & plays the blame game, the death of negative-yielding bonds, diesel supply running low, and china taking discounted Russian oil
@hkuppy we’ve entered the stickers on menus phase of inflation… pic.twitter.com/Hb8y1pn05Z — Jake Bergmann (@JakeBergmann1) May 2, 2022
If the Fed does not tighten far enough, they risk a period of longer and higher inflation. If the Fed raises rates at a strong pace, something in the market is likely to break. This is the catch-22 of the year 2022.
Today's topics include the Fed & credit, what to watch for in tomorrow's FOMC meeting, tightening in progress, RIP to the Fed put, used car prices rebound, the dollar's effect on other countries, the 60/40 portfolio offers no shelter from losses, housing's role in Fed tightening, the bear case, Russia avoids default for now, tech profitability, and ETH's gas fees spike for a brief period
A replay of our May 5 conference call.
Whether looking at stocks, bonds, or commodities, 2022 has been a year of extreme returns.
With Q1 2022 earnings season underway, we check in on expectations. Revenue and earnings growth expectations are in the mid-single digits and company guidance has turned positive again.
Today's topics include cruel spring, yen weakness, expect a big move this week, stagflation threat, the carnage in markets will define 2022, the supply/demand story, easy money ends, Buffett criticizes casino market, and crypto & the dollar