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What Is the Yield Curve Telling Us?
May 9, 2022
The last six weeks have seen a bear steepener with rising interest rates and a steepening yield curve. The market thinks the Fed is behind the curve and doubts the FOMC's ability to rein in inflation. Inconsistent and contradictory Fed talk is inflaming this situation.
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Q1 Earnings Update – Expectations Are Higher
May 9, 2022
With Q1 2022 earnings season underway, we check in on expectations. Revenue and earnings growth expectations have accelerated and company guidance has shifted back to positive.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
May 9, 2022
Today's topics include Kashkari on the Fed's demand destruction, the bond market's losses, Shanghai adds tougher lockdowns, watch refining margins, bank profitability as rates rise, gold as a hedge, retail traders back to square one, stock market bearishness, and factor investing
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Cartoons
May 9, 2022
Newsclips
Is a Higher High in Rates Coming?
May 6, 2022
Interest rates seemed poised for their first higher high in almost 40 years. Should this happen, it would suggest interest rates are in a secular uptrend.
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Employment in Pictures – A Rather Mundane Report
May 6, 2022
With the Fed's focus on inflation, this morning's payrolls report did little to move the needle for FOMC policy.
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Another ARK Update as Cathie Wood Doubles Down
May 6, 2022
Cathie Wood and the ARK ETFs, headlined by ARK Innovation (ARKK), are arguably the most important manager/complex on Wall Street. After their outstanding performance in 2020, these funds significantly underperformed in 2021 and have had an abysmal start to 2022. Wood is sticking to her guns and so are her investors.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
May 6, 2022
Today's topics include problems in markets?, more on Musk and Wood's comments on passive investing, action needed by the ECB, disappointing economic growth, Clarida calls for 3.5% fed funds, mortgage rates surge, Tokyo inflation, BoE warns of coming recession, stablecoin regulation, and crypto jobs.
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Cartoons
May 6, 2022
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
May 5, 2022
Today's topics include the Fed's dovish 50 basis point hike, understanding Fedspeak, the terminal funds rate, holding on to the transitory narrative too long, searching for yield, will we see 3% unemployment this year?, the post-pandemic norm, Elon & Cathie make the case for active management, buy the dip?, and European power prices continue higher
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Cartoons
May 5, 2022
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