Crude prices have tumbled about 25% since early June, reflecting concerns of a global growth slowdown. Traders are betting against higher crude prices, but are reluctant to convey themselves as bearish.
Today's topics include the Fed pushes back on the pivot, Powell to speak at Jackson Hole, there is no alternative when inflation bites, oil's effect on inflation expectations, how fast will inflation fall?, checking in on rate hike odds, retaining talent in tight labor market, meme stocks: easy come easy go, and your daily update on higher energy prices in Europe
Today's topics include talking inflation, more color on the Fed taking an operating loss, pushing back on easing financial conditions, don't underestimate inflation, bloated inventories, the rule of 20 suggests stocks have further to fall, and fewer market millionaires
Inflation projections and forward curves suggest many still believe inflation will quickly return to 2%, giving the Fed reason to stop hiking and start cutting rates. Risk markets, like equities and high yield, are rallying in anticipation of easier policy. Unfortunately these projections and forward curves do not have good track records in predicting the future.
The latest data shows Democrats have closed the polling gap with Republicans. The Senate is now favored to stay in Democrat control.
Today's topics include bringing back Treasury buybacks, bond yields & growth stocks, the return of the meme stocks, could the FOMC minutes provide pushback on the Fed pivot?, energy prices affecting European smelters, and some hope for big box retailers?
Stocks have rallied on "peak inflation" and "peak hawkishness" narratives as shorts have unwound their bets against US equities. However, both sentiment and positioning among managers remain bearish.
Foreigners continued selling U.S. equities in June. On a 12-month basis, net equity sales reached a record level.
Today's topics include can this still be considered a bear market bounce?, BofA survey shows slight uptick in bullishness, concerns for Chinese growth, measuring inflation during volatile periods, gas demand, rents continue rising, and investors jump back into junk bonds