Today's topics include checking on positioning, how we view inflation, sovereign debt, addressing QT impacts, weaponizing the global economy, looking at housing inflation, corporate bond market, and the Ethereum merge
Inflation was held down by four "bubbles" - cheap labor, cheap goods, cheap energy and better technology. The three "cheap bubbles" have burst and technology alone cannot offset the loss of the other three. This means persistently high inflation going forward.
History shows the two-year yield peaks above the terminal fed funds rate. Currently the terminal rate is expected to reach 4%.
Today's topics include Bloomberg tv, checking in on inflation before tomorrow's big release, the bond bear market, innovation as a driver of the dollar, work from home's impact, another problem for the supply chain?, housing's deceleration, quantifying Covid's effect on the labor force, market sentiment, the 60/40 portfolio, and tough times for crypto miners
Have market stresses reached panic levels that would suggest all the potential bad news is priced in? We do not believe so, suggesting more turbulence could be ahead.
Today's topics include the Fed's long-term view, the folly of economic forecasting, energy price caps, more on utility companies' margin calls, Russian gas imports, the dollar's digital competitors, and Gensler vs. the crypto world
Today's topics include discussing markets & the Fed, determining the odds of a soft landing, projecting a more hawkish Fed, institutions buying record protection, the dollar's unrelenting rise, the bond bear, Russian oil exports, and housing's slowdown
In the Wall Street Journal this morning, "Federal Reserve Chairman Nick Timiraos" signaled a third consecutive 75 basis point hike coming on September 21 and markets reacted accordingly. With just a few weeks until the meeting, even the August CPI report next week might not change this expectation.