Conference Calls
Will the Fed Step Down & The Case for Higher Yields
October 24, 2022
A replay of our October, 26, 2022 conference call.
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Will the Fed “Step Down”?
October 24, 2022
Just as pivot talk disappeared, a new narrative has emerged. The Fed will "step down" from consecutive 75 basis points hikes. This excited the stock market on Friday. Will this catch-phrase prove effective or will it disappoint like its previous iterations of transitory, pause, and pivot?
Newsclips
Q3 2022 Earnings Update: Guidance Still Positive
October 24, 2022
Earnings growth expectations for the next several quarters are declining amidst slowing growth and tighter margins.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
October 24, 2022
Today's topics include the BoJ steps in to defend its currency, the pace of rate hikes, Chinese economic growth falls short, predicting the change of empires is a dangerous game, the lag in monetary policy's effect on the economy, additional perspective on Treasury losses this year, watch out for more landmines ahead, money funds raising fees, Biden's plan to refill the SPR, and crypto regulation
Newsclips
Cartoons
October 24, 2022
Newsclips
Why Rates Can Still Move Higher
October 21, 2022
Without any direct evidence of a worsening economy or a financial accident, such as plunging stock prices, both the long- and short-end of the yield curve can continue to shift higher. With the forward curve projecting a fed funds terminal rate of 5%, history suggests the 2-year yield should go above this level.
Newsclips
Midterm Update – Republicans’ Odds Surge
October 21, 2022
In late September the political betting markets started to move in the Republicans' favor. Markets can react faster to news and this appears to be the case again as increased Republican fortunes are now being reflected in the latest round of polls. The Republicans are solidly favored to take the majority of the House and their odds of taking the majority of the Senate are improving.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
October 21, 2022
Today's topics include trouble in Treasuries, gilts' record-setting relief rally, global housing downturn, looking at credit to gauge risk, copper shortages, investments to beat inflation, college enrollment down, Japan's problems grow larger, and what's next in crypto
Newsclips
Cartoons
October 21, 2022
Charts of the Week
Direct Bidders Taking Larger Portion of 10-Year Auction
October 21, 2022
Direct bidders' notched their highest participation rate since 2014 in the most recent 10-year auction. This is taking place as the Fed and foreigners are reducing exposure to Treasuries.
Charts of the Week
Record Backwardation Adds to Commodity Total Returns
October 21, 2022
Long-term commodity investors have profited from backwardation over the past year, adding to total returns to a degree rarely seen.
Charts of the Week
Crypto Is Now Less Volatile Than Stocks
October 21, 2022
For the first time in years, bitcoin's realized volatility is actually lower than the S&P 500's.