Today's topics include predicting the Fed's moves, big tech's fall, quiet quitting by industry, fun with statistics: gas price edition, some hope for stocks from seasonal trends, Chinese outflows, an eye on credit card debt, inflation bites budgets, and Zuckerberg's net worth
Up to this point, the 10-year less 3-month yield curve has not shown concern that the Fed may be moving too fast and breaking something. But, as the Fed is on the verge of hiking another 75 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, the possibility of a persistently inverted yield curve is growing. If the curve is still inverted a couple weeks from now, a recession is likely to follow.
A look at the size of various markets compared to the U.S. economy
Today's topics include a rock & a hard place, calculating inflation correctly, are consumers going to keep buying?, the problem with growth models, the price of value, exporting oil, wealth boom is over, ending social media tech dominance in the stock market, and another look at crypto stablecoins
Today's topics include measuring the Fed's reverse wealth effect, Mnuchin on the fed's rate hike campaign, the cost of issuing inflation-linked debt, European gas storages filled...but at what price, making the case for a stronger yen, PA debate increases republicans' chances of taking the senate, and maybe a financial crisis is worth it!
The relentless rise in yields that began in late July is not yet showing signs of abating. The S&P 500 has lost 8% over this period after being down as much as 17%. Stocks will remain under pressure until yields reverse. Will it take a harsh sell-off in the S&P 500 and a risk-off rally in Treasuries to end this streak?
With two weeks to go, Republican fortunes keep improving. They are now solidly favored to retake the House majority and at least a toss-up to take 51 seats or more in the Senate.
Today's topics include central banks' operating losses, is the tide turning for rents?, a quirk in health insurance costs could help lower CPI, active bond management, previewing this week's Q3 GDP release, and junk bond sales plummet