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Total Return Review – Updating the Year of Extreme Returns
November 1, 2022
The losses in the stock and bond markets have rarely been matched on a historical basis.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
November 1, 2022
Today's topics include deciphering the path forward, looking at the yield curve, supply chains on the Mississippi, small businesses are starting to struggle, the problem with real yields, wheat price stay high, an open letter to the Fed, the Fed's X factor in the inflation fight: households, soft landing?, and ETH miners change jobs after the merge
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Cartoons
November 1, 2022
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The Fed’s Reaction Function to Nick Timiraos
October 31, 2022
Wednesday's FOMC press conference is going to be unusual. Powell will have to address not only inflation, but the Timiraos story about a Fed stepdown.
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Q3 Earnings Update: Lower Expectations for Future Quarters
October 31, 2022
Earnings growth expectations for the next several quarters are declining amidst slowing growth and tighter margins.
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Monthly Fund Flows – Trader Flows vs. Allocator Flows
October 31, 2022
Differentiating 'allocator' ETF flows from 'trader' ETF flows
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
October 31, 2022
Today's topics include the changing economy, will the Treasury buy back bonds?, being bullish, ex-US returns, portfolio returns are making history (in a bad way), the BoJ has big decisions to make, liquidity drain driving tech lower, Eurozone inflation, Timiraos on the Fed's losses, and COVID is still a problem in China
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Cartoons
October 31, 2022
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Midterm Update – Republicans’ Surge Continues
October 28, 2022
The midterm elections are just 11 days away. The Republican surge continues.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
October 28, 2022
Today's topics include predicting the Fed's moves, big tech's fall, quiet quitting by industry, fun with statistics: gas price edition, some hope for stocks from seasonal trends, Chinese outflows, an eye on credit card debt, inflation bites budgets, and Zuckerberg's net worth
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Cartoons
October 28, 2022
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The 10-Year Less 3-Month Yield Curve Inverts
October 27, 2022
Up to this point, the 10-year less 3-month yield curve has not shown concern that the Fed may be moving too fast and breaking something. But, as the Fed is on the verge of hiking another 75 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, the possibility of a persistently inverted yield curve is growing. If the curve is still inverted a couple weeks from now, a recession is likely to follow.