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The Yield Curve Officially Flashes a Recession Signal
November 22, 2022
Today marks the 10th consecutive day that the 10-year less 3-month yield curve has been inverted. When inverted for this long, the yield curve has an eight-for-eight track record over the last 50+ years in predicting recession. On average, recessions typically start 10 months later.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
November 22, 2022
Today's topics include the OECD chimes in on ECB policy, case counts continue rising in China, here we go again, big drop in investor home purchases, Canadian housing market, checking in on the world's richest, and crypto regulation
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Cartoons
November 22, 2022
Newsclips
Q3 Earnings Update: An Ugly Look Ahead
November 21, 2022
Earnings growth expectations for the next several quarters are declining amidst slowing economic growth and tighter margins.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
November 21, 2022
Today's topics include interpreting an inverted yield curve, Goldman remains bearish through 2023, quantifying the effect of Fed's rate hikes thus far, an alternative look at tech valuations, how to measure the costs of shelter inflation, the prime age workforce, a warning on gas price caps, the bull case for copper, and comparing crypto's meltdown to past financial meltdowns
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Cartoons
November 21, 2022
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Valuations in a Bear Market Rally
November 18, 2022
The S&P 500 bounced strongly off the latest CPI data that indicated inflation may be peaking. If October 10th was the bear market low, how do valuations now compare to previous bear market bottoms?
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
November 18, 2022
Today's topics include hikes not over, Bullard on 'sufficiently restrictive', overly optimistic on taming inflation?, COVID keeping China's economy in check, the misery index, emerging market debt, banks' mounting mortgage writedowns, and crypto cover alert
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Cartoons
November 18, 2022
Newsclips
TIC Update – Japans Treasury Holdings Declined by Record Amount in September
November 17, 2022
Japan's holdings of U.S. Treasury securities fell almost $80 billion in September, the largest drop in the eleven years of recorded data.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
November 17, 2022
Today's topics include earnings rally, the Nasdaq has a ways to go, inflation expectations, we may finally see supply chain normalization, spending spree continues, gas glut?, 60/40 getting another shot?, and the final days of crypto? unlikely