Today's topics include estimating China's real covid numbers, more on payroll revisions, could QT end next year?, shipping industry isn't convinced by green energy transition, central banks' moves become more uncertain in 2023, mind the gap, quantifying misery, AUM is only half the story for ARKK, who knows the CPI data ahead of time?
Today's topics include can we trust these market moves?, more on the BoJ's big move, can the VIX predict the end of the bear market?, the savings rate, energy price caps, consecutive yearly losses are rare for stocks, and Powell's hawkish tone takes a toll on stocks
The Bank of Japan raised the cap on 10-year JGB yields in what they called a technical adjustment due to financial stability issues. The real reason this move was necessary is that inflation is running way ahead of their target and forcing yields higher.
Today's topics include keeping an eye on the discount window, the art of stock picking, recession odds continue to rise, the housing market, is NYC giving up on five days in the office each week?, wages vs. inflation, China's reopening, and more on China's Covid statistics
Today's topics include contrarian bond call, wages & inflation, Bill Gross says the fed needs to stop raising rates, plans to refill the SPR, the pros vs. retail, China's covid numbers, Europe's energy crisis, the 60/40 portfolio fails at key level, an earnings recession, and Michael Burry calls crypto audits meaningless
We believe rates have not peaked and will not peak until we see evidence of weakening wage growth. Until then, rates across the curve will shift higher in tandem as the Fed continues to hike rates into 2023.
Japan and China's holdings of Treasuries dropped again in October. A large part of this is simply a function of Treasuries' terrible returns. In the case of Japan, it may also be a sign of stress for the BoJ.
Today's topics include will there be a policy mistake?, recession fears, what do Americans think about the 2023 economy?, transitory vs. structural...again, Europe might avoid worst-case scenario, on services inflation, merger arbitrage outperformed stocks & bonds, and Binance audit group quits crypto