Newsclips
A Study of Inflation, Deflation & the Markets
April 14, 2023
A study of market performance under various inflation and deflation scenarios since 1801
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
April 14, 2023
Today's topics include Paulson makes a recession call, who will fill the void from lost bank loans?, stress testing the entire system, concern over the debt ceiling, more money into money market funds, remote work pushback, G7 discusses growth, US consumer spending in focus, end of days for Eurodollar, big banks benefit from the downfall of small ones, and New York rents reach record
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Cartoons
April 14, 2023
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
April 13, 2023
Today's topics include Timiraos on Fed policy, another look at yesterday's CPI release, projecting the Fed's SOMA holdings in 2030, refilling the strategic petroleum reserve, bank earnings, a note on the fall in bank loan data, the labor market, and financial giants continue pushing against work-from-home
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Cartoons
April 13, 2023
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What Are Volatility Measures Telling Us?
April 12, 2023
Market participants are facing a crisis of 'unknown unknowns.' Most would expect volatility measures to reflect this uncertainty. However, looking at the VIX Index, you would suspect a calm market. This is far from what we have seen in the past two years.
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Inflation Watch – The Next Three Months Will Be Critical
April 12, 2023
Year-over-year CPI declined a full percent in March, as anticipated. The May and June CPI releases are the last window of hope for inflation to fall by such a large degree. The question is not whether year-over-year headline inflation will be lower in a few months, but how far it will fall before year-ago numbers start to make further declines more difficult. Running through several scenarios offers some perspective on inflation's future growth rate.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
April 12, 2023
Today's topics include Fed's focus on data points to another hike, return of the 60/40, unjustified optimism, IMF continues to issue growth warnings, hard times for borrowers, the EV transition is reliant on one company, evolution of remote work, weakening dollar, tech & productivity, and AI in finance
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Cartoons
April 12, 2023
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Why Is M2 Shrinking?
April 11, 2023
The wide spread between bank deposit rates and market rates is causing depositors to make the rational decision to seek higher-yielding alternatives. Many of these alternatives fall outside the components of M2. Money is leaving these components and M2 is falling at its fastest pace in over 80 years.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
April 11, 2023
Today's topics include previewing tomorrow's CPI release, time for a follow-up on Powell's impression of inverted curve?, bond total returns during yield curve inversions, all eyes on banks' earnings reports, the rising cost of servicing debt, fighting a profit-led inflation, Fed's Williams on monetary policy, safety nets affect risk-taking behaviors, and another big milestone for Ethereum.