Today's topics include The Bank Walk, The VIX & the Fed's Target Rate, When Will Extraordinary Measures Be Exhausted?, Williams on Board for May Rate Hike, Refinery Capacity's Effect on Inflation, Banking Crisis Could Affect Corporate Spreads, Millennials Giving Up on Homeownership, and How Big Are Shadow Banks?
Many believe the steep T-bill yield curve and the spread between 3-month and 1-month T-bill yields are signs of concern over the debt ceiling. While this may be partially true, the flood of money away from banks and into money market funds is also creating extra demand (and lower yields) for 1-month T-bills.
The Covid-19 pandemic highlighted global interdependence, pushing world leaders to bolster domestic production, resources, and investment. This de-globalization push has been underway since the Great Financial Crisis.
Today's topics include Dudley shines light on Fed's role in banking crisis, the FHLB's role as bank lender, BoJ yield curve control, where are interest rates heading?, central bank communication: ELI5, betting against the dollar, and a note on our monthly TIC update
Today's topics include a concentrated stock market rally, Fed hawkishness is returning, money market fund explosion, rallying into earnings, financial literacy seems like a thing of the past, banks aren't hedging interest rate risk, bears holding tight, workers are demanding more money, penny for your thoughts?, shipping rates bottomed?, Blackrock says 60/40 won't work with inflation, cost of living crisis, and Chinese economy picks up steam
Tomorrow, April 18, is the deadline for filing taxes in the US. This event greatly impacts bank deposits. History suggests $250 billion can flow from bank accounts to pay taxes. After that, we believe depositors will act rationally and use their mobile apps to move from low-yielding bank accounts to high-yielding market-based accounts. Over time this will lead to a credit crunch.
Q1 2023 earnings reports are underway. S&P 500 operating earnings are expected to decline in early 2023, with a rebound later in the year. Tracking expectations can give insight into the broader macro picture.
Today's topics include big banks' big quarter, deposit insurance, Grantham remains uber bearish, Yellen on the credit pullback, stock returns after hiking campaigns, corporate margins, rents declining, a natural gas supply glut, some perspective on crypto returns, and empty downtowns