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What Are Volatility Measures Telling Us?
April 12, 2023
Market participants are facing a crisis of 'unknown unknowns.' Most would expect volatility measures to reflect this uncertainty. However, looking at the VIX Index, you would suspect a calm market. This is far from what we have seen in the past two years.
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Inflation Watch – The Next Three Months Will Be Critical
April 12, 2023
Year-over-year CPI declined a full percent in March, as anticipated. The May and June CPI releases are the last window of hope for inflation to fall by such a large degree. The question is not whether year-over-year headline inflation will be lower in a few months, but how far it will fall before year-ago numbers start to make further declines more difficult. Running through several scenarios offers some perspective on inflation's future growth rate.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
April 12, 2023
Today's topics include Fed's focus on data points to another hike, return of the 60/40, unjustified optimism, IMF continues to issue growth warnings, hard times for borrowers, the EV transition is reliant on one company, evolution of remote work, weakening dollar, tech & productivity, and AI in finance
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Cartoons
April 12, 2023
Newsclips
Why Is M2 Shrinking?
April 11, 2023
The wide spread between bank deposit rates and market rates is causing depositors to make the rational decision to seek higher-yielding alternatives. Many of these alternatives fall outside the components of M2. Money is leaving these components and M2 is falling at its fastest pace in over 80 years.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
April 11, 2023
Today's topics include previewing tomorrow's CPI release, time for a follow-up on Powell's impression of inverted curve?, bond total returns during yield curve inversions, all eyes on banks' earnings reports, the rising cost of servicing debt, fighting a profit-led inflation, Fed's Williams on monetary policy, safety nets affect risk-taking behaviors, and another big milestone for Ethereum.
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Cartoons
April 11, 2023
Conference Calls
How Will the Bank Walk Affect the Economy?
April 10, 2023
A replay of our April 13, 2023 conference call.
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Q1 2023 Earnings Preview
April 10, 2023
Q1 2023 earnings reports get underway this week. S&P 500 operating earnings are expected to decline in early 2023, with a rebound later in the year. Banks are the highlight of the early reporting season. What is happening with deposits is the key question.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
April 10, 2023
Today's topics include bank lending hits a wall, bank walks, hedging bank risks, more on last week's payrolls report, the divergent messages coming from stocks & bonds, ominous signs in commercial real estate, active managers miss their mark in Q1, and Larry Summers on the odds of a recession