Today's topics include Dudley shines light on Fed's role in banking crisis, the FHLB's role as bank lender, BoJ yield curve control, where are interest rates heading?, central bank communication: ELI5, betting against the dollar, and a note on our monthly TIC update
Today's topics include a concentrated stock market rally, Fed hawkishness is returning, money market fund explosion, rallying into earnings, financial literacy seems like a thing of the past, banks aren't hedging interest rate risk, bears holding tight, workers are demanding more money, penny for your thoughts?, shipping rates bottomed?, Blackrock says 60/40 won't work with inflation, cost of living crisis, and Chinese economy picks up steam
Tomorrow, April 18, is the deadline for filing taxes in the US. This event greatly impacts bank deposits. History suggests $250 billion can flow from bank accounts to pay taxes. After that, we believe depositors will act rationally and use their mobile apps to move from low-yielding bank accounts to high-yielding market-based accounts. Over time this will lead to a credit crunch.
Q1 2023 earnings reports are underway. S&P 500 operating earnings are expected to decline in early 2023, with a rebound later in the year. Tracking expectations can give insight into the broader macro picture.
Today's topics include big banks' big quarter, deposit insurance, Grantham remains uber bearish, Yellen on the credit pullback, stock returns after hiking campaigns, corporate margins, rents declining, a natural gas supply glut, some perspective on crypto returns, and empty downtowns
A study of market performance under various inflation and deflation scenarios since 1801
Today's topics include Paulson makes a recession call, who will fill the void from lost bank loans?, stress testing the entire system, concern over the debt ceiling, more money into money market funds, remote work pushback, G7 discusses growth, US consumer spending in focus, end of days for Eurodollar, big banks benefit from the downfall of small ones, and New York rents reach record
Today's topics include Timiraos on Fed policy, another look at yesterday's CPI release, projecting the Fed's SOMA holdings in 2030, refilling the strategic petroleum reserve, bank earnings, a note on the fall in bank loan data, the labor market, and financial giants continue pushing against work-from-home