Charts of the Week
Individual & Foreign Interest in T-Bills
May 12, 2023
Individuals and foreigners are chasing higher Treasury bill yields and buying record amounts. It confirms the trend of a "bank walk" out of low-yielding checking accounts.
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Is the Fed Done Hiking?
May 12, 2023
The Fed has signaled they may be done hiking rates. What do market-based measures suggest?
Charts of the Week
Weaker Loan Demand & Tighter Lending Standards
May 12, 2023
The Fed's Q1 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey paints a picture of a banking industry that is seeing lower demand for loans, tightening lending standards, and increasing spreads on loans.
Charts of the Week
The Correlation Between Stock & Bond Returns
May 12, 2023
As inflation remains at elevated levels, the correlation between stock and bond returns is a telling sign on investors' thinking.
Charts of the Week
QT Rolls On
May 12, 2023
How big are the Fed's holdings of bonds, notes, bills, TIPS, MBS, agencies, and FRNs in relation the outstanding market?
Charts of the Week
Where Are Valuations?
May 12, 2023
There continues to be several uncertainties surrounding the global economy, especially after the banking crisis. Markets remain fairly valued for strong economic times, but valuations don't seem to account for potential disruptions ahead.
Charts of the Week
A Long-Term Look at Inflation-Adjusted Gold
May 12, 2023
A long-term look at inflation-adjusted gold
Charts of the Week
Weekly Research Recap
May 12, 2023
Some interesting charts from our recent posts
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
May 11, 2023
Today's topics include PacWest on the clock, Timiraos confirms a Fed pause, entrenched inflation, what happens after the Fed ends the hiking campaign, your daily debt ceiling update, the banking crisis, and charting the housing market
Newsclips
Cartoons
May 11, 2023
Newsclips
Inflation Watch – In Line With Expectations
May 10, 2023
Year-over-year CPI remained relatively steady in April, as anticipated. The May and June CPI releases will be the last window of opportunity for inflation to fall by a large degree. The question is not whether year-over-year headline inflation will be lower in a few months, but how far it will fall before year-ago numbers start to make further declines more difficult. Running through several scenarios offers some perspective on inflation’s future growth rate. We also offer a similar scenario analysis using the Fed's Supercore measure.
Newsclips
Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
May 10, 2023
Today's topics include the debt ceiling & U.S. default, avoiding another bank failure, on the housing market, central bank uncertainty, Japan's central bank policy, U.S. equity market vs. global, Druckenmiller sees hard landing this quarter, and transforming the labor market with AI