2023's equity market rally has been concentrated in big tech, especially since the beginning of the banking crisis in early March. As small caps begin to rally, we take a look at what has changed and who is benefitting.
Today's topics include deciphering what might be next for the U.S. economy, Dalio marks the current place in the big-debt cycle, stock market concentration, an AI bubble?, liquidity crunch, Yellen comments on further bank failures, the global reserve currency, sticky inflation around the world, and Fed capital supervision
Today's topics include who will buy the deluge of Treasury issuance?, some math on the TGA rebuild, China continues to struggle, predicting recession, discretionary consumer spending, more on the narrow stock market rally, tech flows, renting vs. buying, and Coinbase responds to SEC lawsuit
Today's topics include checking in on the Fed's reverse repo facility, the market reassess the Fed, the problem with interest-only loans, deposit concentration, more on the narrow stock market rally, the cases for & against a continued bull market, dollar alternatives, and Coinbase in the SEC's crosshairs today
Today alone, the U.S. Treasury will issue over $170 billion of bills. This is the beginning of a total wave of issuance over the next few months expected to top one trillion dollars. What it means depends on how much of the funds for these new issues come from the Fed's Reverse Repo Facility (RRP). Predicting moves in the RRP is difficult. So, over the next few days, we will watch the daily take from the RRP.
Today's topics include a skip & a hike, betting on higher rates, bearish stock sentiment, 20% higher capital requirements for big banks?, online banks vs. brick & mortar banks, supply chain crisis 2.0?, OPEC takes on speculators, work-from-home, and airfare on the rise
Payrolls beat estimates for a record 14th straight month. A 'skip' is still expected at the next FOMC meeting, but the July meeting becomes a bit more interesting.
Today's topics include monthly payrolls drive big moves, expect more layoffs this year, manufacturing numbers, slowing global growth, BoJ's potential plan forward, AI frenzy, equity active management, a narrow rally, more on China's economy, and aging global economies