Today's topics include some risk-reward context on the TLT trade, more on yesterday's inflation data, JPMorgan posts record net interest income, can higher yields do the Fed's dirty work?, market shrugs off rumors of Chinese stimulus, the economic freeze from higher rates, and poking some fun at Paul Krugman
Year-over-year CPI held steady in September, as the base effect from year-ago numbers is no longer helping drive inflation lower. Now the difficult part of the battle against inflation begins.
Today's topics include Fed caught in 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' moment, curve trades, US debt & deficit, justifying 'higher for longer', muni bond funds are feeling higher rates, thoughts on high rates from the BoE, commodities & war, and NYC rents finally falling
Today's topics include Timiraos semi-officially calls off rate hikes for next few meetings?, banking net income, the Fed's summary of economic projections as a policy tool, in search of the neutral rate, treasury supply vs. term premia, rising interest rates post risk for unprofitable firms, and bank writeoffs
A replay of our October 12, 2023 conference call.
Q3 2023 earnings season starts this week. S&P 500 operating earnings are expected to decline further in Q3, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of negative earnings. All eyes are on the financial sector to start to gauge the impact of higher rates.
Today's topics include the worst U.S. bond rout on record, higher for longer, another look at China's exposure to the dollar, the IMF's biannual global stability report, small caps vs. large caps, is forward guidance dead?, the Fed's reverse repo facility, and quantifying the stock market's decline
This morning's big payrolls number pushed up the odds of another Fed hike slightly, but traders remain non-committal.