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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
October 18, 2023
Today's topics include Dudley on QT, 2-year note hits 17-year high, retail sales, modeling term premium, BoJ & yield curve control, Treasury liquidity, cost of healthcare in the US, debt & deficit, and Chinese economic expansion?
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Cartoons
October 18, 2023
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
October 17, 2023
Today's topics include volatility in the bond market, term premium, the state of the consumer, junk bonds approaching 10% yields, the cost of refilling oil reserves, and monitoring Russia's crude oil shipments
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Cartoons
October 17, 2023
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Q3 Earnings Update: Is the 2024 Earnings Rebound Too Optimistic?
October 16, 2023
Q3 2023 earnings season starts this week. S&P 500 operating earnings are expected to decline further in Q3, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of negative earnings.
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
October 16, 2023
Today's topics include there's always next year for the bond market, bear steepeners, monetary policy's supply-side effects, Yellen admits higher interest rates may persist, happy anniversary to the bull market, the housing market, and an eye on consumer stocks
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Cartoons
October 16, 2023
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Excess Savings Remain a Tailwind for Consumer Spending
October 13, 2023
The Covid-19 pandemic created excess consumer savings as spending slowed and fiscal stimulus bolstered household incomes. Americans' ability to spend down excess savings has proven enough to bolster the economy. How long can it last?
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Quick Comments/What We’re Reading
October 13, 2023
Today's topics include some risk-reward context on the TLT trade, more on yesterday's inflation data, JPMorgan posts record net interest income, can higher yields do the Fed's dirty work?, market shrugs off rumors of Chinese stimulus, the economic freeze from higher rates, and poking some fun at Paul Krugman
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Cartoons
October 13, 2023
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Inflation Watch – Monthly Shelter Costs a Development to Monitor
October 12, 2023
Year-over-year CPI held steady in September, as the base effect from year-ago numbers is no longer helping drive inflation lower. Now the difficult part of the battle against inflation begins.