Today's topics include do Treasury auctions matter?, pricing in global rate cuts, yield curve control in the U.S.?, poking holes at the goldilocks economy, more Fedspeak, the BoJ leans dovish when dealing with inflation, zombie firms, bond market uncertainty, and quantifying the pain in commercial real estate, secular inflation
Today's topics include still betting on a pivot, the government's interest costs continue to rise, is the Sahm Rule temporarily broken?, Fedspeak, the easy part of the fight against inflation is over, misunderstanding the basis trade, credit card delinquencies on the rise, and bond bulls remain resolute
Today's topics include big inflows into bond funds, cutting rates to 3%?, the problem with relying on the markets to do the Fed's work, Kashkari remains more hawkish than most Fed officials, rising rates hurting developing countries, banks warm up to synthetic risk transfers, and an update on Russian crude shipments
We are well into Q3 2023 earnings season. S&P 500 operating earnings, initially expected to decline, have jumped into positive growth territory.
Today's topics include the message from last week, the end of the new normal?, more on the Treasury's issuance announcement, who will buy the increased Treasury issuance?, a look at dealer positions, modeling the drivers of the natural rate of interest, central banks call time out, and projecting corporate default rates
This morning's payrolls release missed estimates slightly, largely due to striking autoworkers.
Today's topics include what's ahead for the Fed?, bond market fakeout?, a bipolar world order, labor productivity, job openings signal still tight labor market, it's the economy stupid, stagflation in the UK?, buying bills, Gross says go for regional banks, and going toe-to-toe with the SEC