Real Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – Government Studies Ways to Modernize Inflation-Data Collection The U.S. government is trying to modernize the way it collects data on prices to gauge the nation’s inflation rate. The Labor Department‘s Bureau of Labor Statistics has been working with one respondent on ways to get price information directly and electronically… Continue reading Calculating CPI
<Click on chart for larger image> MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – U.S. Trading Volume Continues To Shrink Stock trading volumes in the U.S. are continuing to decline, according to a report from Credit Suisse. Just how much were volumes down? The busiest trading day of the year ranked only 148 on a list of the all-time… Continue reading Trading Volume Continues To Decline
The Wall Street Journal – Inside the ADP Numbers: Evidence that Friday’s Job Report Was a Giant Outlier On that debate, Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, the economist that compiles an alternative closely watched monthly estimate of private-sector job growth from data provided by Automated Data Processing, offers some help. The evidence he draws… Continue reading Here We Go Again With ADP
Bloomberg.com – ABN Amro Chairman Dons Blue Dress to Explain Core Values ABN Amro Group NV Chairman and former Dutch finance minister Gerrit Zalm went on stage in an electric blue dress and golden gloves to portray a fictional brothel-owning sister teaching the bank about core values. “The bank can learn a lot from the… Continue reading Presented Without Comment
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Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week Audio [audio:https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/SubscriberArea/011614.mp3|titles=Conference Call ] Topics Covered This Week Include: Why Did The Fed Taper? US Economic Outlook Fed And Wall Street GDP Guesses Getting 2013 All Wrong Bearish On Bonds – 1 Bearish On Bonds – 2 Stock/Bond Relationship The Fed And The Stock Market Earnings Season Starts Largest… Continue reading Conference Call Presentation/Charts of the Week
<Click on chart for larger image> <Click on chart for larger image> Comment The red oval in the first chart above highlights the high degree of volatility surrounding the initial claims reports lately. The second chart above shows the seasonal adjustments made to initial claims every week. Note that the Bureau of Labor Statistics only… Continue reading Initial Claims Seasonal Adjustments
Bloomberg Businessweek – The Accounting Wizardry Behind Banks’ Strong Earnings Among the four largest U.S. banks, Bank of America, which will report earnings tomorrow, has received the biggest boost from releasing reserves: The move helped it turn $11.8 billion in losses since 2010 into $11.4 billion in profit. Citigroup, which reported $40.4 billion in net… Continue reading U.S. Bank Earnings
<Click on chart for larger image> MarketWatch.com – The ‘most overrated argument’ for equities Commentary: Are stocks attractive just because bonds are not? Should you buy stocks just because there are no attractive alternatives? That’s the question we all face these days, with cash yielding next to nothing and bonds seemingly such a poor bet.… Continue reading U.S. Stocks
<Click on chart for larger image> <Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Fed Student-Loan Focus Recognizes Threat to U.S. Economy While undergraduates are limited in how much they can finance through federal programs, parents and graduate students can borrow much more. They can take out federal PLUS loans up to the cost of… Continue reading Student Loans Effect On The U.S. Economy
The Financial Times – Markets run into fog of forward guidance Central bank communication policy reveals lack of options Unemployment can be affected by participation rates or by its definition and calculation basis. Levels can be affected by unexpected disruptions like a government shutdown, strikes or natural catastrophes. The nature of employment – part- or… Continue reading Central Bank Forward Guidance
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – Beer Goggles, Monetary Camels, the Eye of the Needle and the First Law of Holes “To be sure, there will be individual data points that appear to challenge confidence, like the just-released employment report for December. But I believe the odds favor continued economic progress. And I believe that… Continue reading Richard Fisher Loves Metaphors