The Economist – Sovereign-debt markets: Following a new script Bonds are proving unexpectedly popular so far this year THE advance billing for government bonds in 2014 was that they would be shunned by investors, hopeful for higher returns in equities and fearful of monetary-policy tightening as America’s central bank started to phase out its bond-purchasing… Continue reading Sovereign Debt Markets
<Click on chart for larger image> <Click on chart for larger image> The Economist – The accuracy of equity research: Consistently wrong Bear market or bull, analysts give bad advice Roger Loh of Singapore Management University and René Stulz of Ohio State University looked at analysts’ forecasts of profits and the buy or sell recommendations… Continue reading Equity Analysts Continue To Get It Wrong
The Economist – Technology and jobs: Coming to an office near you The effect of today’s technology on tomorrow’s jobs will be immense—and no country is ready for it Optimism remains the right starting-point, but for workers the dislocating effects of technology may make themselves evident faster than its benefits (see article). Even if new… Continue reading Technological Change And The Office
Bloomberg.com – Metals, Currency Rigging Is Worse Than Libor, Bafin Says Germany’s top financial regulator said possible manipulation of currency rates and prices for precious metals is worse than the Libor-rigging scandal, which has already led to fines of about $6 billion. The allegations about the currency and precious metals markets are “particularly serious because… Continue reading Rigging Markets, Metals And Currency Edition
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Comment Today at 9 AM CT (10:00 AM ET, 7:00 AM PT, and 15:00 GMT), Bianco Research, in conjunction with Arbor Research & Trading, will be hosting a webcast/teleconference moderated by Jim Bianco. Join us today as we discuss what to expect from the markets and economy in 2014. Click here to register [pageview class=”PDFViewer”… Continue reading What To Expect In 2014
Comment The red bars in the chart above show the results of the Stone & McCarthy duration survey while the green line shows the 26-week average. The blue line shows 10-year yields. Currently this survey shows the most bearish reading since late 2008. The table below, covering the 58 months since January 2009, shows the… Continue reading Who Is Not Bearish On Bonds?
<Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Correlation breakdown spells end for broad stock market gains Tight-knit relationships that have defined the US equity market’s five-year bull-run are breaking down as investors look to a future with less monetary stimulus from central banks. Equity market correlations, which measure the relationships between different… Continue reading Are Correlations Breaking Down?
<Click on chart for larger image> MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Investors Ignoring Drumbeat of Downbeat Company Forecasts Investors seem to be shrugging off gloomy profit forecasts from companies, as many say it helps set a lower bar for managements to clear. Stock-market skeptics have pointed to a record high level of negativity from companies making… Continue reading More On Gaming Earnings
MarketWatch – Mark Hulbert: The ‘most overrated argument’ for equities Are stocks attractive just because bonds are not? Should you buy stocks just because there are no attractive alternatives? That’s the question we all face these days, with cash yielding next to nothing and bonds seemingly such a poor bet. And almost everyone gives a… Continue reading Buy Stocks Because They Aren’t Bonds
MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Banks Make Reservations to Beat Earnings Are banks using their reserves for bad loans as a “cookie jar” they can dip into to juice their earnings? Portales Partners LLC, a New York financial-services research firm, thinks so. A partner at the firm points to some intriguing Federal Reserve data and contends… Continue reading Banks Window Dressing Earnings
<Click on chart for larger image> Market News International – BOJ Kuroda: To Keep Easing Until Stable 2% Inflation Achieved Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Thursday repeated his pledge that the BOJ will maintain its aggressive easing policy until the annual inflation rate is well anchored around 2%. In his opening remarks to… Continue reading Abenomics