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Resilient Markets, Shifting Correlations And Central Bank Signaling Made This Summer Different

August 27, 2014

Money News – Mohamed El-Erian: 3 Big Reasons This Summer Was Different No. 1. Extremely resilient markets: Time after time this summer, markets brushed aside unanticipated shocks that would have normally resulted in notable and prolonged price declines. From multiple geopolitical threats, including those that could easily tip Europe into recession, to broad-based global economic… Continue reading Resilient Markets, Shifting Correlations And Central Bank Signaling Made This Summer Different

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Stock/Bond Relationship

August 27, 2014

<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Lisa Abramowicz:  Something’s Out of Whack With Bonds, Stocks: Bianco Sees Losses Investors who think owning a mix of bonds and stocks means they’re diversified may want to re-examine that strategy. Or at least give their ear to Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research LLC. He argues… Continue reading Stock/Bond Relationship

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Housing

August 27, 2014

<Click on chart for larger image> <Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Home Price Growth Keeps Throttling Down, Says S&P/Case-Shiller The yearly growth in home prices across the U.S. continues to slow this year, according to a home price report released Tuesday. The home price index covering the entire nation… Continue reading Housing

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An Updated Look At The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Forecast

August 27, 2014

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta – GDPNow The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2014 was 3.2 percent on August 26, up from 3.0 percent on August 19. The nowcast for equipment investment increased from 9.4 percent to 11.3 percent following this morning’s advance report… Continue reading An Updated Look At The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Forecast

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Is Abenomics A Failure?

August 27, 2014

<Click in chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Abenomics’ arrows fail to hit their mark The limits of a weaker yen More importantly, Japanese makers have lost their competitive edge. In June, industrial production fell 3.3 per cent, bringing it to 6.9 per cent below its January peak. Parse the numbers and the… Continue reading Is Abenomics A Failure?

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The Federal Reserve’s Power

August 27, 2014

Slate – Zachary Karabell: The Fed Is Not As Powerful As We Think But we’ve fostered an unhealthy dependency on its leader. Interest rate policy had to “inferred” from the subsequent movement of rates in global markets.That began to shift under Volcker, and changed dramatically with the 1987–2006 tenure of Alan Greenspan. Coinciding with stock… Continue reading The Federal Reserve’s Power

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Economic Output In The U.S.

August 27, 2014

The Fiscal Times – Andrew Fieldhouse: The Threat That Could Scar the Economy for Decades Despite some signs of improvement, the U.S. economy remains far from healed. And the longer the slump persists, the nastier the lingering scar that will mar the economy for decades to come. By the best measures of economic health, more… Continue reading Economic Output In The U.S.

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Policy Divergence Between The Fed And ECB

August 27, 2014

The Wall Street Journal – ECB and Fed Face Policy Divergence, For Now The European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve may soon see policies going in vastly different directions. Many market participants took ECB President Mario Draghi’s recent speech in Jackson Hole—in which he warned about declining inflation expectations–as a signal that the ECB… Continue reading Policy Divergence Between The Fed And ECB

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V-Shaped Rebound Trends In Stocks

August 27, 2014

MarketWatch.com – This chart shows how V-shaped stock-market rebounds have become the norm It’s worth reading the whole list, but here are just a few other numbers crunched by Sassy Options: – Since the end of 2012, there have been 10 V-shaped bottoms, including the most recent one. – The average pullback has been 5.1%… Continue reading V-Shaped Rebound Trends In Stocks

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The Myth Of Deleveraging

August 27, 2014

<Click in chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Andrew Smithers: US economy: the persistent myth of deleveraging Claims that deleveraging damages growth not only assumes a connection between economic and debt growth, but hold that the transmission mechanism is through a reduction in spending due to a wish to deleverage, ie, investment by… Continue reading The Myth Of Deleveraging

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Bernanke States The 2008 Crisis Was Worse Than Great Depression

August 27, 2014

The Wall Street – 2008 Meltdown Was Worse Than Great Depression, Bernanke Says Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, a prominent student of the Great Depression, contends that the 2008 financial crisis was actually worse than its 1930s counterpart. Mr. Bernanke is quoted making the statement in a document filed on Aug. 22 with the… Continue reading Bernanke States The 2008 Crisis Was Worse Than Great Depression

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Is The Student Loan Crisis Overblown?

August 27, 2014

Bloomberg View – The Student-Loan Hype Machine: Ritholtz Chart The numbers are big, the default rates are high and soon enough this is going to tip the economy into the next crisis or recession. Not so fast, writes Torsten Slok, chief international economist for Deutsche Bank AG, in his forthcoming September chart-book.Slok notes that 93… Continue reading Is The Student Loan Crisis Overblown?