<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – CBO Offers Mixed Forecast of U.S. Budget, Economy for Next Decade The Congressional Budget Office on Wednesday said the federal budget deficit over the next decade will be smaller than previously forecast, as the government continues to benefit from low interest rates. The CBO… Continue reading The CBO’s Latest Forecasts
MarketWatch – Michael Sincere: This house market is falling apart Most real estate experts believe the U.S. housing market is roaring back. Few have anything to negative to say about real estate. But what if they’re wrong? Real estate analyst Keith Jurow, author of the Capital Preservation Real Estate Report, is warning that the real… Continue reading A More Detailed Look At Housing
The Financial Times – ECB QE: will it happen and what next? Mario Draghi’s Jackson Hole speech may presage QE announcement So what will be the markets’ reaction if ECB QE is announced? Given the record valuations already reached, some of the responses may be the opposite of what one might normally expect. The US… Continue reading Will The ECB Add More QE?
The Wall Street Journal – Burton G. Malkiel: Are Stock Prices Headed for a Fall? Long-run equity returns from today’s price levels are likely to be considerably lower than their 10% long-run average. There is a disagreement about the sustainability of current lofty stock market valuations. One camp argues that the market is dangerously overvalued.… Continue reading Are Stocks Overvalued?
The Financial Times – Ralph Atkins: Central bankers face ‘confidence bubble’ A big worry is that the global efforts of central banks have still to create sufficient economic growth – and equity markets have gone too far in pricing in a recovery. “Either the market has to correct, to converge towards a fundamental situation that… Continue reading Confidence In Central Banks
The Wall Street Journal – Nonbank Mortgage Lenders Bounce Bank As some banks retreat from the home-loan market, specialized mortgage companies are stepping in to fill the void. In the first half of the year, lenders that aren’t banks made almost a quarter of all mortgage loans, the highest level since at least the financial… Continue reading Mortgage Origination
The New York Times – A New Reason to Question the Official Unemployment Rate The Labor Department’s monthly jobs report has been the subject of some wacky conspiracy theories. None was wackier than the suggestion from Jack Welch, the former General Electric chief executive, that government statisticians were exaggerating job growth during President Obama’s 2012… Continue reading Criticizing The Unemployment Rate
MoneyBeat (WSJ Blog) – Why It’s Okay to Trust a Quiet Market There’s a school of thought that you can’t trust a rally on thin volumes. Problem is, it might not be true. The stock market’s rise in August has been accompanied by some of the weakest volume in years. On Monday, the S&P 500… Continue reading Stocks Advancing On Low Volume
Bloomberg.com – China Developer Debt Risk Rises as Sales Miss: Chart of the Day China’s largest property developers risk missing their full-year sales targets as tighter credit and an economic slowdown cut demand for real estate, fueling concern the industry will struggle to repay debt. The CHART OF THE DAY shows the 13 biggest developers… Continue reading An Update On China’s Property Bubble
Alhambra Investment Partners – The Greater the Stock Bubble, the Less Monetary Theory Holds The only other time net worth dropped so far so fast was off the immediate bottom in 2009. That should be a very big warning to investors as the conditions of 2013 and 2014 are nothing like the end of the… Continue reading Buybacks And Margins
Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: Stocks Up 230% From March 2009 Low The 10-Year Treasury And QE Stock Market Correlation One Final Q2 Earnings Season Update One Final Q2 Earnings Season Update – 2 One Final Q2 Earnings Season Update – 3 Stocks Continue Marching Higher On Low Volume Hedge Fund… Continue reading Charts of the Week