Real Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – Fed’s Dudley: It Would Be ‘Premature’ to Hike Interest Rates Soon Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said Thursday the time hasn’t yet arrived for the U.S. central bank to begin raising short-term interest rates. While there’s been considerable improvement in the U.S. economy, “it still… Continue reading Timing The Rate Hike
CNN Money – Liberals and conservatives blast the Fed The economy might be improving, but Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen can’t catch a break. Conservatives in Congress demanded an audit of the Fed last month. Now liberals have their list of grievances. A coalition led by the left-leaning Center for Popular Democracy has launched a… Continue reading When In Doubt, Blame The Fed
Real Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – Today’s Financial Market Risk-Taking Looks a Lot Like 2006 Is the global economy experiencing pre-crisis déjà vu? Almost, the International Monetary Fund’s top financial adviser said recently. Financial market risk-taking is reaching excesses comparable to those that precipitated the global financial meltdown, José Viñals said at a Peterson Institute… Continue reading Predicting The Next Crash
Advisor Perspectives – Why Jeremy Grantham is Right about Corporate Profit Margins “Profit margins are probably the most mean-reverting series in finance, and if profit margins do not mean-revert, then something has gone badly wrong with capitalism. If high profits do not attract competition, there is something wrong with the system and it is not… Continue reading Corporate Profit Margins
The Telegraph – Spreading deflation across East Asia threatens fresh debt crisis Deflation is becoming lodged in all the economic strongholds of East Asia. It is happening faster and going deeper than almost anybody expected just months ago, and is likely to find its way to Europe through currency warfare in short order. Factory gate… Continue reading Asian Slowdown
The Financial Times – Christie’s sets $853m art auction record Works by Andy Warhol, Roy Lichtenstein and Willem de Kooning helped Christie’s set a world record for a single auction on Wednesday when works at its postwar and contemporary art evening in New York sold for $852.9m (£536m). The auction house said 11 new world… Continue reading Do Record Art Auction Prices Signal A Top In Stocks?
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Charts of the Week Topics Covered This Week Include: When Will The Fed Raise Rates? Crude Oil Supply And Demand WTI And LLS To Brent Crude Oil Spread Gas Prices Continue To Fall Revenues Disappoint The Soaring Dollar The Monthly Change In Private Payrolls U.S. And Eurozone Unemployment Rates Employment In Pictures Gold and Silver… Continue reading Charts of the Week
<Click on chart for larger image> Comment The black boxes in the chart above are derived from the Fed’s “dot chart.” It shows what the Fed expects the funds rate to be at year-end through 2017. The red line shows what the Eurodollar futures curve expected on September 18, the day after the Fed released… Continue reading When Will The Fed Raise Rates?
The Wall Street Journal – Wall Street economists more hawkish than Wall Street traders Bond traders are at odds with Wall Street economists as to when they forecast the first increase in interest rates from the Federal Reserve. Economists polled by Blue Chip Economic Indicators for the November issue see the first rate hike in… Continue reading Economists More Hawkish Than Traders, This Is Not New
<Click on chart for larger Bloomberg.com – U.S. Shale Boom Masks Threats to World Oil Supply, IEA Says The U.S. shale boom masks threats to global oil supply including Middle East turmoil, conflict in Ukraine and the difficulty of unconventional oil production beyond North America, the International Energy Agency said. “The global energy system is… Continue reading Crude Oil Supply And Demand
The Financial Times – Fewer active managers beat market than at any time in decade Fewer fund managers are beating the market this year than at any time in over a decade, piling further misery on a profession that faces increasing investor scepticism. Fewer than one in five active managers outperformed the stock market in… Continue reading Active Management Lags The Indices … Again