The New York Times – Floyd Norris: Doubting the Economic Data? Consider the Source The economic statistics are fake. There is no real economic recovery. That refrain was heard in 2012, when Jack Welch, the former chief executive of General Electric, claimed that a reported decline in unemployment was “unbelievable.” He added, “These Chicago guys… Continue reading Why Is Economic Volatility Disappearing?
Comment Yesterday Bloomberg released its monthly survey of economists. The table above shows their 6-month forward forecasts for 10-year yields (or Q2 2015). In this month’s survey, 82 economists offered an opinion. 81 (99%) see 10-year yields rising above their current level of 2.35% in the next 6 months. The one economist predicting lower yields… Continue reading Economists Still 99% Bearish
The New York Times – Obama Said to Plan Moves to Shield 5 Million Immigrants President Obama will ignore angry protests from Republicans and announce as soon as next week a broad overhaul of the nation’s immigration enforcement system that will protect up to five million undocumented immigrants from the threat of deportation and provide… Continue reading More Gridlock On The Way?
The New York Times – Editorial: The Fed and Full Employment The job market is improving. But absent a surge in the pace of improvement, it will still be too weak to withstand tighter monetary policy in the coming year. Comment We have been predicting the Fed will “never” raise rates but we reserve the… Continue reading Please Fed, Don’t Raise Rates
<Click on chart for larger image> The Wall Street Journal – Eurozone Economy Expands at Meager Pace Greece Posts Fastest Growth Rate in Currency Bloc The eurozone economy expanded last quarter at a sluggish pace, underscoring concerns that the region is stuck in a rut of declining investment and high unemployment at a time when… Continue reading Europe Continues To Struggle
The Wall Street Journal – John H. Cochrane: Who’s Afraid of a Little Deflation? A sudden drop wouldn’t be good, but a steady annual decline of, say, 2%? Worries about that are overblown. According to the conventional worldview, the economy is inherently unstable. Central banks control inflation the way you balance an upside-down broom, with… Continue reading So Now Deflation Is A Good Thing?
The Wall Street Journal – IEA Suggests Oil Prices Rout Could Continue Unless Output Cut Oil Demand Forecast to Fall Steeply at Start of 2015 Compared with End of This Year A rout in oil prices is likely to continue into the first half of 2015 unless global output is reduced, the International Energy Agency… Continue reading Now They Turn Bearish!
The Economist – Mergers and acquisitions: The new rules of attraction The latest boom in dealmaking appears more sensible than its predecessors. But valuations are creeping into the danger zone Whether dealmaking is sensible is once more an important question, because M&A are back with a vengeance, after a lull following the financial crisis. Worldwide,… Continue reading M&A Update
<Click on chart for larger image> The Economist – Russia’s economy: The rouble’s rout The head of the Central Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, is struggling to nip this trend in the bud. First, on November 5th, she hiked interest rates, to 9.5%. That means that rouble deposits earn far more than dollar ones, which… Continue reading Ukraine And Russia, Both Losing
Real-Time Economics (WSJ Blog) – Former Fed Chief at Odds With How Central Bank Now Makes Policy Mr. Volcker, who believes the Fed’s main goal is to defend the dollar’s stability, said he doesn’t even understand why the Fed adopted a 2% target for inflation. He asked, “Do we want prices to double every generation?”… Continue reading Volcker Objects
Comment Jim was on Bloomberg Radio yesterday discussing a variety of topics ranging from the decline in crude oil to earnings, sentiment surveys and volatility. To hear the interview, click on the button below. Audio [audio:https://www.biancoresearch.com/bianco/SubscriberArea/1113 Jim Bianco.mp3|titles=Conference Call ] Business Insider – Here’s What A Sustained $20 Drop In Oil Prices Does To The… Continue reading Interpreting Crude Oil’s Decline