The Reformed Broker – Joshua M Brown: In 2014 I Learned That… Aron Pinson (Microfundy): rates don’t necessarily rise in a rising rate environment. Peter Boockvar (The Lindsey Group): crystal balls don’t exist and making year end stock market calls is a worthless endeavor. Jim Bianco (Bianco Research): foreign events (Crimea, Ebola, Russia, Malaysian Planes,… Continue reading What I Learned From 2014
The Economist – Buttonwood: Same old song Forecasts for 2015 look remarkably like forecasts for 2014 IMAGINE that, ten years ago, a group of economists had been made privy to the key American indicators at the start of 2015. They would have been told that GDP grew at an annualised 5% in the latest quarter,… Continue reading 2015 Predictions
<Click on table for larger image> The Economist – Influential economists: Shifting clout Economists’ academic rankings and media influence vary wildly Our winner was Jonathan Gruber, an expert in health policy who advised on Obamacare. Comments made by Mr Gruber on the sausage-making behind the health-care law became the centre of a political firestorm last… Continue reading Ranking Economists
The Financial Times – Euro slides to lowest since June 2010 on Draghi QE hint Expectations that the European Central Bank is preparing an early round of quantitative easing were boosted by comments from Mario Draghi, ECB president, which hit the euro and drove peripheral eurozone bond yields lower on Friday. In an interview with… Continue reading Draghi Promises ECB QE (Again)
<Click on chart for larger image> <Click on chart for larger image> The Financial Times – Merkel attacks wave of rightwing populism German chancellor Angela Merkel headed a trio of European leaders in delivering a powerful warning against populism and prejudice taking root in Europe, amid deepening fears about economic stagnation. In a hard-hitting new… Continue reading Europe’s Growth And Unrest
The Economist – Greece’s election: The euro’s next crisis Why an early election spells big dangers for Greece—and for the euro As 2015 approached, most of Europe’s leaders assumed that the worst of the euro crisis was behind them. The early Greek election shows that hope was premature. Populist parties of left and right that… Continue reading Will Grexit Happen In 2015?
<Click on chart for larger image> The Telegraph (UK) – Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:The year of dollar danger for the world We are entering a new financial order where there is no longer an automatic “Fed Put” or a “Politburo Put” to act as a safety net for asset markets America’s closed economy can handle a surging… Continue reading Dollar Rally
<Click on graphic for larger image> Alhambra Investment Partners – Jeffrey P. Snider: Occam’s Oil That leaves us basically once more in the hands of Occam’s Razor, namely that oil prices are falling hard because demand is falling hard. The scale gives us insight into the nature of the slowing of the global economy, to… Continue reading Oil Demand
The Financial Times – John Authers: Investment: Loser’s game With as few as 10 per cent of US active managers beating their benchmark in 2014, they are having to employ new tactics However, the problems of active managers create dangers. Somebody has to do the job of “price discovery”, or setting a sensible price for… Continue reading Active vs Passive
<Click on graphic for larger image> Zero Hedge – For CNBC, 2014 Was The Worst. Year. Ever. In the meantime, here are the facts: * CNBC’s Total Business Day segment (M-F 9:30a-5p), just delivered its lowest rated year since 1995 with P2+ and delivered its lowest rated year ever since 1992 with the 25-54 demographic… Continue reading CNBC Viewers
<Click on chart for larger image> Bloomberg.com – Oil Set for Biggest Slump Since 2008 as OPEC Battles U.S. Shale Oil headed for the biggest annual decline since the 2008 global financial crisis as U.S. producers and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries ceded no ground in their battle for market share amid a supply… Continue reading No End In Sight For The Crude Oil Slump